How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Open10as of
Market pricing makes 4.8% the favorite at 68% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES MARKET’S NEW FEAR GAUGE • • The US 30-year Treasury yield has become a key market focus as concerns over government debt and fiscal credibility intensify. • • A Bloomberg survey shows 66% expect the 10-year yield to exceed 5% this year. • • But KB Securities says investors are too pessimistic. • • It argues policymakers still have tools to contain yields, including Treasury buybacks, fiscal tightening, Operation Twist and bank deregulation.
Bloomberg: 10-year yields to rise above 5% by year-end
A Markets Pulse survey predicts that benchmark 10-year bond yields will surpass 5% before the end of the year. #Arabic_Business
NY bonds fall; 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.73%, briefly at a 18-month high.
TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM • • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening. • • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM • • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening. • • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
TREASURY SELLOFF GATHERS MOMENTUM • • U.S. Treasury yields climbed across the curve after Fed officials Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack defended their calls for a 25 bp rate hike, boosting expectations of near-term tightening. • • The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.737%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as investors increased bets on higher rates.
US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE TO 4.7388%, HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2025
US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise to 4.7388%, Highest Since January 2025
Treasury Yields Stay Near Decades-High After Fed Pause. Long-Term Borrowing Costs Still Under Pressure. • The benchmark 30-year Treasury yield remained near its highest level in almost two decades as markets weighed the Fed's latest policy decision, inflation data and expectations for additional rate hikes later this year.
TREASURY YIELDS HIT 19-YEAR HIGH • • US Treasury yields climbed after the Federal Reserve held interest rates, with the 30-year yield reaching a 19-year high of 5.24%. • • Three Fed officials dissented in favor of a rate hike, highlighting concerns over persistent inflation. • • The dollar slipped 0.1% as investors weighed the uncertain policy outlook.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpasses 5.2%... highest in 19 years
NY bond market sees decline in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.67% due to persistent inflation concerns.
[Breaking News] 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Surges to 5.2% Range... Highest Since 2007
[Breaking News] 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Surges to 5.2% Range... Highest Since 2007
NY bond market: Long-term bonds continue to rise; 10-year Treasury yield at 4.60%, driven by buying pressure due to lower oil prices.
New York bond market sees continued declines in long-term bonds; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.69%, briefly reaching a 18-month high due to inflation concerns.
The 10-year Treasury yield could test 5% after its latest spike. Here’s why
US 10-year Treasury yields rise to 4.7%, the highest since January 2025 #Arabic_Business
US 10-Yr Treasury Yields Reach 4.689%, Highest Since January 2025
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).