Next French Presidential ElectionFrançois Hollande
Open$2.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Francois Hollande hints at running again for French presidency
Presidential Election 2027: François Hollande states he is not a candidate "today" and will vote in the Socialist primary.
Presidential election 2027: François Hollande states that he is not a candidate "today" and that he will vote in the Socialist primary
Live: François Hollande states that "today" he is not a candidate for the 2027 presidential election
Live: François Hollande does not rule out a presidential candidacy "if the situation requires it"
NOThe Economist98%match99¢-2%
Over the past decade it has evolved from an untouchable extremist movement into a party that could win the French presidency in 2027, or enter government before then
NOThe Economist98%match99¢-2%
It could win the presidency in 2027 or parliamentary power even sooner
Where does the news lean?
12YES14NO40neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 73% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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