Next French Presidential ElectionJean-Luc Mélenchon
Open$1.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: A poll indicates that Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in a position to qualify for the second round of the presidential election
Presidential election 2027: Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes significant gains in the polls, which predict he will qualify for the second round
"Faced with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, I will vote for any candidate," declares David Lisnard, candidate for the 2027 presidential election.
BFMTV POLL. 2027 Presidential Election: One in two French people favor a single left-wing candidate, excluding La France Insoumise (LFI).
Les électeurs de gauche ne sont pas irréconciliables. Mais, à cause de Jean-Luc Mélenchon, qui fait converger le plus de rejet contre lui au 2nd tour, la défaite est quasi certaine quand un candidat insoumis est en tête. • • C’est la raison pour laquelle Jean-Luc Mélenchon est le plus mauvais candidat à la présidentielle car il ferait perdre la gauche y compris face à l’extrême droite.
NOThe Economist98%match90¢-4%
Over the past decade it has evolved from an untouchable extremist movement into a party that could win the French presidency in 2027, or enter government before then
NOThe Economist98%match90¢-4%
It could win the presidency in 2027 or parliamentary power even sooner
Where does the news lean?
21YES24NO35neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 76% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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