Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen
Open$2.0Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 33% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES33¢
NO67¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen polling at record high ahead of 2027 election
Marine Le Pen would win the next election despite conviction, say polls
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen would win in all scenarios in the second round, according to an Ifop poll
Presidential election 2027: Marine Le Pen would win in all scenarios in the second round, according to two polls
2027 Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen at her highest level after the court decision… Discover the Figaro poll
EXPLAINED: Why is Marine Le Pen now able to run for the French presidency? • • After more than a year of uncertainty, a court ruling means the French far-right politician can run in the country’s 2027 presidential election. How has the situation been resolved, at least for now?
"Tonight I declare: I am a presidential candidate" On July 7, Marine Le Pen announced live on TF1 that she is running for president in 2027, despite the appeal court's guilty verdict. She also confirmed that if she wins, Jordan Bardella will become prime minister. A new political plot that the Fifth Republic has never seen before. For the first time, the front-runner in a presidential campaign is entering it after already being convicted by a criminal court and awaiting the decision of the cassation court. Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, reports. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram [in reply to: Marine Le Pen returns to the race for the Elysee Palace The Paris Court of Appeal has allowed her to participate in the presidential elections. This decision effectively determined the configuration of the 2027 presidential campaign in France. The court, which had promised not to interfere in politics, decided two political issues at once: the French elections and the situation within the National Rally. Kommersant's correspondent in France, Alexei Tarkhanov, reports the details. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram]
Marine Le Pen announced that she will run for president of France in 2027 The leader of the French "National Union" said that she would file a cassation appeal against the court's decision and conduct a presidential campaign without an electronic bracelet. According to Le Pen, the appeal to the Court of Cassation suspends the execution of her sentence. So, tonight I am a candidate in the presidential election, — the politician announced on French television. Le Pen also assured that she no longer sees any scenario in which she would not be able to participate in the 2027 elections.
"There's no scenario in which I can't run for president," French far-right leader Marine Le Pen declared in a television appearance after her conviction, stating her intention to run in the 2027 spring presidential election.
Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen announces her presidential candidacy for 2027 Far-right politician Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 French presidential elections after an appeals court reduced her disqualification from 60 to 45 months, allowing her to run despite her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds.
Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's far-right party, was found guilty on appeal, but the suspension of her eligibility to run for office was shortened. She has announced she will run in next year's presidential election.
French President Marine Le Pen intends to run for president in 2027, despite a guilty verdict in her appeals court; she has indicated her intention to appeal.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen found guilty again in her second trial; however, the reduction in her suspension from running for office will allow her to announce her candidacy for next year's presidential election.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to run for president in 2027; leading in approval ratings, appeals in finance fraud trial
Live: Marine Le Pen confirms she intends to run in 2027 presidential election, appeal parts of today's verdict - what we know so far
Marine Le Pen announced: I will run in the presidential election
Marine Le Pen says she will run for president in 2027 and take appeal against conviction to France's top court
French court clears path for Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election A French appeals court has reduced Marine Le Pen's ban on public activity, effectively clearing her path to run in the 2027 presidential election. @YjcNewsChannel
French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen cleared to run in 2027 election
Breaking : Marine Le Pen, leader of #France’s far-right National Rally party, has been cleared by a court to run in the 2027 presidential election. • • The ruling could prove highly consequential for both France’s next presidential race and the future direction of the European Union.
Where does the news lean?
87YES35NO40neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 52% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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