Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?↑10k
Open$6.5Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO94¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
"After 2,318 cases were recorded in 45 states," measles cases in America surpass last year's total and reach their highest level since 1991.
NOCNN Breaking News99%match77¢+21%
The US has surpassed 1,100 measles cases in two months. Statistics indicate that means to expect more deaths next
NOCGTN America99%match72¢+29%
MEXICAN HEALTH MINISTER SAYS 9,074 MEASLES CASES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED IN 2025 AND 2026
YESPolymarket98%match26¢-73%
[Replying to @Polymarket] 88% chance the outbreak spreads past 2,000 cases this year. > BREAKING: A measles outbreak in South Carolina is “accelerating” with no end in sight.
NOPolymarket99%match99¢-6%
BREAKING: U.S. set to surpass 2,000 Measles cases this year. 55% chance.
Where does the news lean?
3YES4NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
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