Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Hike–Hike
Open$2Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Central bank watchers now overwhelmingly expect not only a Fed rate increase this week, but a second hike before the end of the year
YESReuters97%match17¢-18%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, Said 86 of 101 Economists (vs 65 of 93 Expecting Hold in Sept 9 Poll)
The Fed's interest rate hike next week is becoming increasingly likely: inflation is not slowing in the United States and remains at 3.4%, fueled by soaring gas prices.
US INFLATION ACCELERATES — FED HIKE RISK RISES • • US inflation picked up in August, strengthening the case for another Fed rate hike next week. • • Headline CPI rose 0.4% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y, while core CPI increased 0.3% M/M. Gasoline was a key driver, with oil back above $100/barrel adding to inflation concerns. • • Markets had been pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25bp hike ahead of the report. • • Higher inflation + resilient employment + elevated oil prices = increasing pressure on the Fed to tighten.
Where does the news lean?
84YES10NO15neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 56% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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