Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
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Market pricing makes Hike–Pause–Hike the favorite at 74% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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One Fed hike this cycle, most likely in December after the midterms. Warsh played it smart. Hiking while talking up Trump’s economy makes it hard for Trump to criticise the move. The US economy is ticking along, and inflation has stayed surprisingly behind what the UK and Europe have seen.
September meeting minutes reveal Fed officials lean towards raising interest rates by the end of the year.
FED HIKE FEARS FADE AHEAD OF OCTOBER DECISION • • Kalshi traders now see an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady on October 28, against just 16% for a 25-basis-point hike. •
FED HIKE FEARS FADE AHEAD OF OCTOBER DECISION • • Kalshi traders now see an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady on October 28, against just 16% for a 25-basis-point hike. •
JULIUS BAER SEES FINAL FED HIKE IN DECEMBER • • Julius Baer expects the Fed to deliver one final 25bp rate hike in December, followed by an extended pause. • • The bank points to a cooling U.S. labor market and sharply tighter financial conditions, driven more by rising long-term Treasury yields and a stronger dollar than by higher short-term rates. • • December is now seen as the most likely window for the final hike.
JULIUS BAER SEES FINAL FED HIKE IN DECEMBER • • Julius Baer expects the Fed to deliver one final 25bp rate hike in December, followed by an extended pause. • • The bank points to a cooling U.S. labor market and sharply tighter financial conditions, driven more by rising long-term Treasury yields and a stronger dollar than by higher short-term rates. • • December is now seen as the most likely window for the final hike.
JULIUS BAER SEES FINAL FED HIKE IN DECEMBER • • Julius Baer expects the Fed to deliver one final 25bp rate hike in December, followed by an extended pause. • • The bank points to a cooling U.S. labor market and sharply tighter financial conditions, driven more by rising long-term Treasury yields and a stronger dollar than by higher short-term rates. • • December is now seen as the most likely window for the final hike.
Fed May Skip October But Pull Rate Hike Trigger In December - RTRS • •
Fed May Skip October But Pull Rate Hike Trigger In December - RTRS • •
Expectations of an October interest rate hike recede due to concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, according to US employment statistics for September.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path is expected to slow; Chinese banks estimate only one rate hike before the end of the year.
Several Fed officials have signaled a dovish stance, with the market expecting a rate hike in December.
TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE • • The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. • • With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE • • The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. • • With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE • • The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. • • With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. • • The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. • • The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. • • The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. • • The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. • • The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. • • The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
Live: An October hike in US interest rates is now “firmly on the back foot”, predicts Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “A softer-tha
Live: An October hike in US interest rates is now “firmly on the back foot”, predicts Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “A softer-tha
Live: An October hike in US interest rates is now “firmly on the back foot”, predicts Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “A softer-tha
A RATE HIKE THIS MONTH IS NOW LESS LIKELY • • There is now an 85% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed make NO CHANGES to interest rates when they meet later this month
A RATE HIKE THIS MONTH IS NOW LESS LIKELY • • There is now an 85% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed make NO CHANGES to interest rates when they meet later this month
A RATE HIKE THIS MONTH IS NOW LESS LIKELY • • There is now an 85% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed make NO CHANGES to interest rates when they meet later this month
*FED-DATED SWAPS NO LONGER PRICE ONE FULL RATE HIKE THIS YEAR
October 2 (Cailian Press) -- Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate are no longer pricing in a full rate hike (25 basis points) this year.
October 2 (Cailian Press) -- Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate are no longer pricing in a full rate hike (25 basis points) this year.
FED PAUSE ODDS SURGE TO 85% AFTER WEAK JOBS REPORT • • Kalshi now prices an 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October after payrolls rose just 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected. • • Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, triggering a sharp dovish repricing of the Fed outlook. •
FED PAUSE ODDS SURGE TO 85% AFTER WEAK JOBS REPORT • • Kalshi now prices an 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October after payrolls rose just 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected. • • Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, triggering a sharp dovish repricing of the Fed outlook. •
FED PAUSE ODDS SURGE TO 85% AFTER WEAK JOBS REPORT • • Kalshi now prices an 85% chance the Fed holds rates in October after payrolls rose just 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected. • • Unemployment climbed to 4.2%, triggering a sharp dovish repricing of the Fed outlook. •
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm