Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Pause–Hike–Hike
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Markets PM: Fed Issues First Rate Hike Since 2023 -- WSJ Newsletter
Here are the key points from the Federal Open Market Committee statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years, saying the goal is to bring inflation back to its 2% target "sooner." Policymakers also expect another rate hike before the end of the year and have removed their projections for a rate cut next year. They now believe the Fed will keep interest rates steady through 2027. During his press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly emphasized the strength of the economy and said today's rate hike removes "a dose of easing" from monetary policy. Warsh declined to answer questions about whether he had recently been in contact with US President Donald Trump. The Fed's decision was unanimous, and the projections of committee members, known as the "dot chart," show strong support for at least one more rate hike, with 16 officials believing it is likely. Yields on two-year US Treasury notes rose to their highest level since 2024 following the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy and Warsh's press conference, while longer-term yields held steady or declined, in stark contrast to the day of the last interest rate decision. Stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%. #Arabic_Business
POLYMARKET SAYING 64% CHANCE OF ANOTHER FED HIKE BY YEAR-END • • The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75-4.00% today in a unanimous vote, and the dot plot showed 12 of 18 officials penciling in one more 25bp hike this year, four seeing two, and two seeing none. • • Warsh: "The plain fact is inflation is too high and has been for too long." Asked about a discussion with the president, he said he had nothing on that.
Live: Here’s what housing market experts think of the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates
Fed Decision / Hua Xu: High Inflation for Too Long – Three Changes Led to Interest Rate Hike
On the final day of the FOMC meeting, a first interest rate hike in 3 years and 2 months is considered likely; inflation countermeasures will be the focus, as Chairman Warsh holds a press conference.
NOReuters96%match96¢+4%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, Said 86 of 101 Economists (vs 65 of 93 Expecting Hold in Sept 9 Poll)
Goldman throws in towel on no rate hikes: • • "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week (vs. a hold previously). Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. While today’s CPI report only raised our August core PCE forecast slightly to 0.26% and has not changed our fundamental inflation view, we think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike."
Where does the news lean?
3YES80NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.