Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Hike–Pause
Open$66Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE • • The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. • • With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
This ho-hum labor market report doesn't really change the story for the Fed, whose senior officials had gone out of their way this week to signal that an October rate hike probably wasn't their base-case. • • The biggest development was what it didn't show: few signs from wages or the unemployment rate that the labor market is tightening in ways that would add meaningfully to price pressures. • • The September CPI, due Oct. 14, was always going to be more important than this report, which nevertheless takes some of the hawkish edge off of the recent repricing of the Fed's path in markets.
New Fed guidance: “There is no need for urgency.” • • John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors. • • • • He lays out his base case: One more hike “may be appropriate late this year.” • • Following Warsh’s press conference two weeks ago, markets had pushed pricing of an October rate increase above 50% — to as high as 70% in futures markets in recent days. • • Here is the key passage from the NY Fed president’s prepared remarks on Tuesday afternoon: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals—and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.” • • “If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.”
Kevin Warsh raised rates and gave investors little reason to think it's a one-off. The Fed chairman's language suggests the central bank sees more work ahead, even if its projections show just one more hike. • • His comment about having "removed a dose of accommodation" is Fed-speak for stimulus, meaning officials don't think rates are restraining the economy even after raising them. • • He also cited geopolitics as a reason to act. His comment about a change in "our judgment about what is the most likely or least likely" outcome suggests the Fed is no longer treating the energy shock as something to wait out. • • That led one analyst, BNP's James Egelhof, to suggest that the first hike and the additional 2026 hike penciled into the rate projections is "likely a down payment on what might need to be a much more prolonged policy tightening cycle." • • President Trump said Wednesday evening that he was standing by the chairman, who he said has “a very tough board" that is politically opposed to him. “I talked to Kevin. I said, ‘You might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter." • • Warsh declined to discuss his conversations with the president but said the choice to raise rates had been “one that we have been preparing for and thinking about” since he arrived at the Fed in May. He called it a “sober,” “serious,” and “responsible” decision. • •
Markets PM: Fed Issues First Rate Hike Since 2023 -- WSJ Newsletter
On the final day of the FOMC meeting, a first interest rate hike in 3 years and 2 months is considered likely; inflation countermeasures will be the focus, as Chairman Warsh holds a press conference.
YESReuters97%match20¢-90%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, Said 86 of 101 Economists (vs 65 of 93 Expecting Hold in Sept 9 Poll)
The Fed's interest rate hike next week is becoming increasingly likely: inflation is not slowing in the United States and remains at 3.4%, fueled by soaring gas prices.
Where does the news lean?
107YES38NO82neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.