Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Pause
Open$137Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 21% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES21¢
NO79¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Fed May Skip October But Pull Rate Hike Trigger In December - RTRS • •
TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE • • The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%. • • With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.
YESReuters94%match20¢+5%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hike Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, Said 86 of 101 Economists (vs 65 of 93 Expecting Hold in Sept 9 Poll)
Goldman throws in towel on no rate hikes: • • "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week (vs. a hold previously). Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. While today’s CPI report only raised our August core PCE forecast slightly to 0.26% and has not changed our fundamental inflation view, we think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike."
The Fed's interest rate hike next week is becoming increasingly likely: inflation is not slowing in the United States and remains at 3.4%, fueled by soaring gas prices.
Where does the news lean?
16YES11NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.