Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
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The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
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24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
Reuters: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in more than three months Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens, and shipping traffic in the strait increases by approximately 400% in two weeks under US protection The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in the vital waterway increased by approximately 400% over the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using the route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to approximately 150 ships the week before and only 40 ships two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait reached approximately 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. #From_the_Event
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
Live: Commercial traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains at 20 percent of pre-war levels, report reveals
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
Live: Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz slides as peace talks remain in limbo
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
Sixty days after the Tehran-Washington agreement, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues at a lower level of traffic and oil volume than before the war. Ship traffic increased for a while after the agreement, but then decreased again with the resumption of hostilities. Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that oil volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026 was about 77 percent lower than pre-war levels.
Hormuz crossings rise slightly from weekend, remain in single digits, data shows
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS NEAR A STANDSTILL • • Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler, despite Trump declaring the waterway “open.” • • That remains far below the roughly 120 vessels per day seen before the war. • • Of those 14 ships, 11 used the Iranian-approved route, while none used the traditional central passage. • • Kpler says the modest traffic increase does not signal normalization, keeping pressure on global oil supplies.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply; Ships pass by 9 per day According to data from the Kepler Institute, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply and reached 84 per week. This unprecedented disruption in the world's most important energy waterway, caused by military tensions, has led to a jump in oil prices and concerns in global markets. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Kepler data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in a week... Only 8 ships were observed on Tuesday, compared to the 130 to 140 ships that usually passed through before the closure.
Where does the news lean?
21YES135NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 82% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.