Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.5Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
51 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in recent weeks Reuters reported that information published in the maritime sector indicates that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains weak and has decreased in the shadow of the existing military tensions. Al Jazeera also reported that the movement of ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in the past few weeks. @iribnews
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined following an escalation of attacks.
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declines following escalation of attacks in the Middle East
IMF: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 10% of pre-war levels
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops as regional tensions persist
Reuters: Shipping data shows traffic slowing in the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the week as tensions in the region escalate.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic plunges to lowest levels since May: report
Reuters: Traffic has dropped sharply after recent attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz Only 2 ships passed through the strait on Saturday and 6 on Sunday; most of them used the Iranian-controlled route / Selected
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since May.
Live: Shipping traffic in Hormuz drops to its lowest level since May
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization on the social network X, referring to the CENTCOM statement about the targeting of three Iranian oil tankers by American forces on September 4, stated: "Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a lower level than usual. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also continues to attempt to attack vessels and disrupt their traffic."
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, data shows
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center, on Thursday, September 3, called the threat level in the region's waterways "severe" and announced that the attacks and efforts of the Revolutionary Guard Corps to target or disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue, including the flying of drones, targeted surveillance of commercial ships, and occasional radio contacts with them. According to the report, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels, and independent data indicates single-digit numbers of ships passing in both directions. The report also mentions the killing of two crew members of the "Sider" oil tanker, which was attacked on the evening of September 29 while passing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz vessel traffic drops further: Update
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains depressed amid regional tensions
The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 5 per day at the start of the week.
Reuters: Number of commodity ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to 5 per day at the start of the week.
Vessels crossing Hormuz strait drop to 5 per day over weekend
NOReuters94%match100¢
Commodity Vessels Transiting via Strait of Hormuz Drop to 5 Per Day Over Weekend -Data
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
Reuters: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached its lowest level in more than three months Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 6 ships passing through on Tuesday.
Reuters: Initial data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level, with only six ships passing through the strait on Tuesday.
Sixty days after the Tehran-Washington agreement, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues at a lower level of traffic and oil volume than before the war. Ship traffic increased for a while after the agreement, but then decreased again with the resumption of hostilities. Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that oil volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of 2026 was about 77 percent lower than pre-war levels.
Hormuz crossings rise slightly from weekend, remain in single digits, data shows
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the past two days.
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
Reuters: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a complete standstill
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "approaching its lowest level since May," according to US media.
Wall Street Journal: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to one-fifth of its previous level.
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS NEAR A STANDSTILL • • Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler, despite Trump declaring the waterway “open.” • • That remains far below the roughly 120 vessels per day seen before the war. • • Of those 14 ships, 11 used the Iranian-approved route, while none used the traditional central passage. • • Kpler says the modest traffic increase does not signal normalization, keeping pressure on global oil supplies.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply; Ships pass by 9 per day According to data from the Kepler Institute, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply and reached 84 per week. This unprecedented disruption in the world's most important energy waterway, caused by military tensions, has led to a jump in oil prices and concerns in global markets. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic falls to one-week low
Kepler data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in a week... Only 8 ships were observed on Tuesday, compared to the 130 to 140 ships that usually passed through before the closure.
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to one-week low
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level this week
Where does the news lean?
37YES217NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.