Next round of US-Iran peace talks
Open11as of
Market pricing makes March 31, 2027 the favorite at 62% across 11 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Pakistan proposes 60-day deadline for US, Iran to return to negotiating table Pakistan has proposed a new 60-day deadline for the resumption of direct talks between the United States and Iran, an initiative that Islamabad hopes will lead to an agreement to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift economic sanctions on Tehran. @ilnair
Defunct MoU Has A Key Iranian Backer. Pezeshkian Floats 'Neither War Nor Peace' Scenario.. • The US and Iran had agreed on a deal in June to pave the way for an end to the conflict. The broader terms of a peace deal were to be chalked out in 60 days. The 60-day period has ended but there has been no significant progress in backchannel negotiations as the US and Iran failed to reach a consensus on the management of the contentious Strait of Hormuz.
Defunct MoU Has A Key Iranian Backer. Pezeshkian Floats 'Neither War Nor Peace' Scenario.. • The US and Iran had agreed on a deal in June to pave the way for an end to the conflict. The broader terms of a peace deal were to be chalked out in 60 days. The 60-day period has ended but there has been no significant progress in backchannel negotiations as the US and Iran failed to reach a consensus on the management of the contentious Strait of Hormuz.
Live: Timeline: What has happened this week since US and Iran missed deadline for peace talks
Live: Timeline: What has happened this week since US and Iran missed deadline for peace talks
With the memorandum of understanding now expired, the pressure on Iran isn't letting up. • • The U.S. blockade remains in place, Iran continues targeting vessels and a diplomatic solution still appears out of reach. • • Special Envoy Jared Kushner tells @TreyYingst that communications continue, but he isn't putting a timeline on a breakthrough: "When the deal is ready, the deal will be ready." • • Iran responds with a message of its own, calling for "patience, solidarity and hope" as the country faces what it describes as ever-increasing "pressures and threats."
The 60-day deadline set in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for Tehran and Washington to reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement expired on Monday, August 16, without a final and official agreement to extend it. Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News: "The Islamic Republic must raise the white flag of surrender." More details in an interview with Iran International correspondent Samira Qaraei
The 60-day deadline set in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for Tehran and Washington to reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement expired on Monday, August 16, without a final and official agreement to extend it, with Donald Trump saying in an interview with Fox News: "The Islamic Republic must raise the white flag of surrender."
Live: What has happened since the US-Iran MoU was signed?
Live: What has happened since the US-Iran MoU was signed?
The 60-day window for US-Iran negotiations expired, fading hopes for a peace agreement and causing a slight rise in oil prices.
The 60-day deadline set in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for Tehran and Washington to reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement expired on Monday, August 16, without a final and formal agreement to extend it. At the same time, Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News: “The Islamic Republic must raise the white flag of surrender.” More details in an interview with Maryam Rahmati, a correspondent for Iran International
The 60-day deadline set in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for Tehran and Washington to reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement expired on Monday, August 16, without a final and formal agreement to extend it. At the same time, Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News: “The Islamic Republic should raise the white flag of surrender.”
U.S. and Iran locked in stalemate as 60-day window for talks expires
U.S. and Iran locked in stalemate as 60-day window for talks expires
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, 16 August 1405, answer to the seventh question: The mediator of issues related to Iran and the US, as I have already mentioned, is Pakistan, and Qatar is also trying.
It is quite natural that some European countries, in their contacts with us, raise viewpoints and declare their readiness to use their noble efforts; but this does not mean that we have a new mediator in developments related to Iran-US relations.
Basically, the issue between us and the US is not about the mediator. The issue goes back to the way America views things, its miscalculations, and its insistence on methods and approaches that have failed hundreds of times; But the American ruling party still insists on trying the same tried-and-tested paths again.
They will definitely not get any results other than the previous ones.
@MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, August 16, 1405, Question 7: Some Western sources claimed that the Americans are seeking European mediation between Tehran and Washington. Have you received any new signals or messages from the Europeans? Basically, it is better to pose the question as follows: Can Europe play the role of mediator as in the past? @MFAIran]
Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, 16 August 1405, answer to the third question: First of all, there is no such thing. We do not have anything called a 60-day deadline in the text of the understanding, and basically, it has been proven many times that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a party that adjusts its policies under pressure, ultimatums, and deadlines. First of all: We make decisions based on our national interests, based on our assessments of what provides and guarantees national interests and security. Therefore, we do not have anything called this in the understanding. What was stated in the understanding, and the understanding that you now know its status, is now clearly in a state of non-implementation due to the gross violations by the United States. It was foreseen there that during a 60-day period, two issues of lifting sanctions and the nuclear issue would be discussed, and if we did not reach a conclusion within these 60 days, it would be extended. We did not start the negotiations because a few weeks after the signing of the memorandum of understanding, on June 18, the United States began gross and widespread violations of the text of the memorandum of understanding, and therefore, basically, that 60-day discussion is irrelevant. We are focused on the affairs of running the country. At the same time, our armed forces are watching every movement with their eyes wide open and fully alert. The second point: The points you mentioned, strengthening relations with different countries, are part of the duty of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and we have them on our agenda. We are in contact with the countries of the region and other relevant parties and are carrying out our daily duties. @MFAIran [in reply to: Meeting of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the media, Monday, August 16, 2021, Third question: In the context of serious threats to Iran's security, what plans does the Islamic Republic of Iran have on its agenda? Is there strengthening relations with neighbors and dialogue with interested parties in this direction? What diplomatic path is going to be activated? @MFAIran]
Ismail Baghaei, spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, announced in a press conference on Monday, August 16, that "there is no such thing as a 60-day deadline" in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. Bagaei said: "The Islamic Republic does not make decisions based on ultimatums and deadlines, and we were supposed to negotiate issues such as the nuclear file within 60 days, but given the US's violation of the Memorandum of Understanding, the 60-day discussion is no longer relevant." The spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry added: "Due to the US's gross and widespread violation of the Memorandum of Understanding of June 18," no talks began just a few weeks after it was signed, and as a result, the discussion of the 60-day deadline has completely lost its relevance.
Fox News reported that the 60-day deadline set in the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington expires on Monday, while diplomatic efforts to reach a new agreement have made only limited progress. According to Fox News, the escalation of tensions in the region has also presented serious obstacles to the process of diplomatic talks. Reported by Amir Giti, Iran International correspondent
US-Iran talks to end hostilities are due today as the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz escalates into a series of attacks; President Trump is expected to strengthen economic sanctions this week.
Referring to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, Trump said in New York on Friday: "They no longer have leadership." Their first tier is gone, their second tier is gone, and half of their third tier is gone.” He added that this situation has also made it difficult to negotiate with the Islamic Republic: “One of my problems is that there is no one to negotiate with.”
Trump then mockingly said that Iran is “the only country in the world that nobody wants to be its president.”
The US President also claimed that the Islamic Republic’s radar systems and advanced intelligence equipment have been destroyed and that Iran’s missile production capacity has been reduced by 82 percent.
According to him, the Islamic Republic still has a number of missiles and drones, but this equipment constitutes only a small part of Iran’s previous capability, and their production capacity has also been severely damaged.
In another part of his speech, Trump attacked media reports about the situation in Iran, and referring to inflation and the devaluation of the rial, he said that the Islamic Republic’s claim of successful performance in the war is inconsistent with the economic realities of the country. No. The Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic said in an interview with "Shahraranews" on Saturday, August 14, that there are no negotiations underway between Iran and the United States and that Tehran has not yet decided to resume negotiations. Abbas Araqchi said that Qatar and Pakistan are in contact with Tehran and Washington and that the two sides are exchanging messages, but these communications do not mean that negotiations have begun.
The Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic also rejected reports about the existence of a "60-day ceasefire."
According to him, the Islamabad memorandum of understanding spoke of the "end of the war" and setting a 60-day deadline for negotiations on a final agreement, not a ceasefire that now needs to be extended. Araqchi also called the negotiations between Tehran and Muscat "technical and specialized" and said that Iran and Oman are determining new sea routes for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The armed forces of the two countries are also participating in these talks. According to him, a temporary route for the passage of ships will first be determined, which may be the basis for the final route. At the same time, Iraqchi emphasized that determining the shipping route and opening the Strait of Hormuz are two separate issues. He conditioned the opening of this waterway on the fulfillment of the Islamic Republic's conditions by the United States.
@VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
IRAN SAYS NO DECISION YET ON U.S. TALKS • • Iran has not decided whether to resume negotiations with the United States, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said. • • Qatar and Pakistan continue exchanging messages with Tehran as mediators, but Araqchi stressed that these contacts do not constitute negotiations. • • The comments suggest diplomacy remains active behind the scenes, but formal U.S.-Iran talks have yet to restart.
A White House official reveals that the ceasefire with Tehran has not yet been extended: The decision-making process in Iran is divided among three factions. A White House official tells Politico that there is no extension to the ceasefire with Iran yet. A US official confirms that Iran has not shown any desire to negotiate and reach an agreement so far. The official reveals that Washington's objectives in the negotiations are clear, unlike Tehran's. The official indicates that the decision-making process in Iran is divided among three factions, therefore the negotiations are in disarray. The 60-day deadline for negotiations between the US and Iran ends on August 15. #From_the_Event
US-Iran ceasefire set to expire as talks deadlock The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday, unless a last-minute agreement is reached to extend it and potentially end the war, Politico reported.
US-Iran ceasefire set to expire as talks deadlock The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on Monday, unless a last-minute agreement is reached to extend it and potentially end the war, Politico reported.
A White House official reveals that the ceasefire with Tehran has not yet been extended: The decision-making process in Iran is divided among three factions. A White House official tells Politico that there is no extension to the ceasefire with Iran yet. A US official confirms that Iran has not shown any desire to negotiate and reach an agreement so far. The official reveals that Washington's objectives in the negotiations are clear, unlike Tehran's. The official indicates that the decision-making process in Iran is divided among three factions, therefore the negotiations are in disarray. The 60-day deadline for negotiations between the US and Iran ends on August 15. From Al Arabiya
With four days to go before the 60-day ceasefire between Tehran and Washington, as agreed in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, ends, regional mediators are trying to continue talks. However, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that no talks have taken place between the Islamic Republic and the United States to extend the ceasefire. Reported by Amir Giti, Iran International correspondent
A knowledgeable source tells the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel that there is optimism in Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator between the US and Iran, about keeping the diplomatic channel between the US and Iran open for another 60 days. This source also notes that the mediators need more time to address the issues in dispute between the US and Iran.
A knowledgeable source tells the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel that there is optimism in Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator between the US and Iran, about keeping the diplomatic channel between the US and Iran open for another 60 days. This source also notes that the mediators need more time to address the issues in dispute between the US and Iran.
Reuters: No talks underway between Iran and the US The Reuters news agency, citing a "senior Iranian source", wrote: No talks have taken place between the United States and Iran to extend the ceasefire because there is no agreement and therefore nothing to extend.
What is this event about?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.