Next round of US-Iran peace talksJuly 10
ResolvedOutcome: No$1.9Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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46 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: US officials say negotiations with Iran to resume Saturday
US-Iran talks may resume next week; Trump says "agreement to continue".
Iranian sources say reports of a new round of talks between Iran and the US next week are untrue.
Iran Denies Upcoming Talks With US - Fars •
Axios cites a source: New round of US-Iran talks to be held next week, likely in Switzerland Axios reported, citing a source, that a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week, likely to be hosted by Switzerland.
Sources say a new round of US-Iran talks may be held in Switzerland next week.
Iran and US to continue talks, but ceasefire is ‘OVER,’ Trump says
Trump: The US has agreed to continue negotiations with Iran.
Trump: Iran asked us to continue talks and we agreed
A source told Reuters that the talks addressed the implementation of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran and the issues that led to the escalation between them.
Mediators push to keep U.S.-Iran talks going after intense flare-up
Live: Technical talks between Iran and U.S. continue: U.S. official
Live: US and Iran are still engaged in technical talks on nuclear issues, US official says
Live: Mediators scramble to bring US and Iran back to negotiating table as ceasefire collapses
US launches new strikes on Iran
US says it has launched new strikes on Iran
Live: US starts new strikes against Iran
US launching new wave of strikes in Iran
Live: Why did the US begin striking Iran again?
Timeline of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding June 14: Trump and Vance announced the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding in a closed session. June 18: Trump and Pezeshkian were photographed signing the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran separately. June 21-22: US Vice President Vance, Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, Qataris, and Pakistanis met near Lake Lucerne. June 25: Iran launched a drone attack on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman. June 26: The US military launched retaliatory strikes. June 30-July 1: Iran and the US held a round of indirect talks in Doha at the level of Wittkopf/Kushner and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi. July 6: Iran bombs 3 commercial ships July 7: US Central Command bombs 80 targets in Iran July 7: The United States cancels the waiver from oil sanctions imposed on Iran A few days ago, sources had said that talks might resume after the Supreme Leader's funeral after July 10 This entire timeline was punctuated by Iranian objections to Washington's non-compliance with Article 13, which pertains to Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 (specifically those related to Lebanon)
US strikes Iran
Iran to US: "Negotiations on the final agreement will not begin if threats continue"
Iran foreign minister says US threats are an impediment to deal-making
Live: How discussions between the US and Iran were progressing before Khamenei's funeral
Live: US and Iran talks conclude with 'positive' progress, mediators say
#Breaking | Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ismail Baghaei:
The terms of the interim agreement must be implemented before talks with the US can begin to reach a final agreement.
The communication channel between Iran and the US is political, not military.
My position: The terms of the interim agreement must be implemented before talks with America can begin to reach a final agreement.
Iran says interim deal must be implemented before final US talks can begin
IRAN'S BAGHAEI SAYS INTERIM DEAL CLAUSES NEED TO BE IMPLEMENTED BEFORE TALKS WITH U.S. TO REACH FINAL DEAL CAN START
NOReuters99%match59¢+69%
Iran’s Baghaei Says Interim Deal Clauses Need to Be Implemented Before Talks with U.S. to Reach Final Deal Can Start
Assaf Rosenzweig
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Access for International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to the damaged nuclear facilities is blocked. We will not hold a meeting with the US in the coming days, we have emphasized this very clearly. The US has explicitly pledged that the fighting in Lebanon will end
IRNA Live Coverage;
Baqai: If the other side does not fulfill its obligations according to Article 13 of the Memorandum of Understanding, the continuation of the process will face difficulties / We have favorable conditions regarding some clauses, including issuing exemptions from sanctions and lifting the blockade The Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, in response to a question regarding the assessment of the recent US attacks on targets inside the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the possibility of their negative impact on the continuation of the ongoing peace negotiations: It is natural that the US's failure to adhere to its obligations according to the Memorandum of Understanding will definitely have a negative impact on the continuation of the process, and there is no doubt about this. First of all, we will not leave any action unanswered; As the powerful Iranian armed forces have shown, any act of aggression against the objectives of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a decisive and immediate response. Secondly, these actions are considered a violation of the first paragraph of the Memorandum of Understanding, and naturally, in the event that such violations are repeated and continue, the continuation of this process will be difficult. I draw your attention to paragraph 13 of the Memorandum of Understanding and the fact that the discussion regarding the final agreement is subject to the commencement of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of the Memorandum of Understanding and their continued implementation. We have a relatively favorable situation with respect to some of the paragraphs; including the termination of the naval blockade and the issuance of an exemption related to the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products, as well as the commitment of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, to which we have been fully committed. But in relation to some cases, we are facing serious challenges, and in this regard, it is necessary for the other party to implement its obligations in accordance with the clauses of the memorandum of understanding. @IRNA_1313 [in reply to: IRNA Live Coverage;
Survival: The suspension or severance of relations is a unilateral and unjustified decision by Canada, and if we receive a request to reopen, we will review it The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the question that "After almost 10 years, the Canadian government recently announced that it is officially considering the issue of reopening the embassy in Tehran or at least resuming consular activities. How should we evaluate the signal of a change in approach in this country's foreign policy? Thank you." He said: It has been more than 10 years, since December 2012, when Canada unilaterally and without any specific reason decided to suspend its diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since then, Iranians living in Canada have been among those who have suffered due to the inability to provide consular services, and this has shown that the Canadian government has not paid much attention to humanitarian issues and human rights. Regarding your question, it should be specifically said that we have not received any official request in this regard. The suspension or severance of relations was a unilateral and unjustified decision by Canada. If we receive a request in this regard, we will review it, but so far no such request has been received. @IRNA_1313]
No direct talks between the US and Iran are planned; US Special Envoy Witkoff and others in Doha will meet with mediators.
US forces launch renewed attacks on Iranian military facilities, citing "failure to abide by ceasefire agreement," escalating the exchange of retaliation.
US military says it struck multiple targets in Iran as ceasefire is strained by 2nd day of attacks
The strikes targeted military observation posts, communications systems, and drone storage facilities. The US military launched additional strikes on several targets inside Iran following the latest attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
BREAKING: US STRIKES MULTIPLE TARGETS IN IRAN AT TRUMP'S DIRECTION • • The US military said Saturday it struck multiple targets in Iran at President Trump's direction, continuing a string of strikes that have strained the war's uneasy ceasefire, per AP. • • The military said on X that "Iran had a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement" but "elected not to" when its forces attacked a ship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier Saturday. Iran state TV reported explosions north of the strait. • • The strikes follow US attacks a day earlier on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar locations. The June 17 deal to end the war and reopen the waterway has continued to fray.
This second round of strikes followed a second ship being hit by IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz at 4:30 am this morning and 9 one way attack drones being fired by Iran at a US base in Bahrain last night: US official said while confirming tonight’s round of airstrikes is complete.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a statement on Sunday morning, July 28, that its forces, on the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, have launched a new round of strikes against multiple targets in Iran. Noting that after yesterday’s attacks, “Iran was given an opportunity to respect the ceasefire agreement,” CENTCOM emphasized that Tehran rejected this opportunity by launching a suicide drone at 4:30 a.m. Eastern Time today against the Panamanian tanker “M/T Kiko” containing more than two million barrels of crude oil near the Strait of Hormuz. The statement continued by stating that today’s attacks were carried out “in direct response to Iran’s continued aggression against commercial shipping,” and that American fighter jets targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense sites, drone storage, and mine-laying capabilities. CENTCOM concluded by emphasizing the continued passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, warning: "US forces remain alert, lethal and ready."
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Upon orders from President Trump, US military carries out second day of attacks against Iran. “Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to when its forces launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning,” CENTCOM says.
The US is launching a series of strikes against targets in Iran in response to the attack on the tanker - Axios journalist
01:12/ July 27
The United States has attacked targets in the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran's attacks on offending ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days, as well as this morning's Iranian attack on CENTCOM military bases in Bahrain. This time, before the US attack, Iran preemptively destroyed some of the US strategic assets that had recently been moved to the region.
The US and Iran exchange attacks, with Iran retaliating, citing "violations of the memorandum of understanding."
The US bombs sensitive Iranian sites in response to an attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Does this military escalation threaten the Swiss agreements?
US strikes Iran
US strikes Iran
Where does the news lean?
20YES82NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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