Next round of US-Iran peace talksSeptember 30, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$1.7Mas of
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This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
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32 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
“U.S. and Iran hold 3-hour meeting at UN”... Will high-level ‘direct channel’ reopen?
[UPDATE] US and Iran hold first talks since June as Trump threatens ‘annihilation’ (first reported at 2026-09-22T16:14:50Z)
The US and Iran meet for the first time in months
A US source who attended the meeting with the Iranian delegation announced that the chances of reaching an agreement are limited. The source added that significant differences and obstacles remain between the two sides. The source also stated that Washington rejected Tehran's request to lift the sanctions.
U.S. and Iran hold 3-hour talks at UN headquarters... Trump says "agreement is favorable to Iran" (Roundup)
U.S. And Iran Officials Met To Discuss The War. Stocks Were Mixed.. • "I think there's a lot of momentum for them to make a deal. That's what we are hearing from everybody," Trump said after the meeting.
[UPDATE] The Latest: Trump says US and Iran met for 3 hours after his threat during United Nations speech (first reported at 2026-09-22T12:15:19Z)
Live: Iran’s state television confirmed that the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had met with the U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on the sidelines of the General Assembly on Tuesday. The report said that Araghchi relayed Iran’s stern conditions for reaching a peace deal with the United States, and that those included the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s southern shores, releasing Iran’s frozen funds and ending hostilities on all fronts as a condition for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi himself has not yet publicly commented on the meeting.
[UPDATE] Barak Ravid: U.S. and Iran officials meet in New York to discuss ending the war (first reported at 2026-09-22T15:07:23Z)
[UPDATE] US-Iran delegation holds 3-hour negotiations in New York; Trump says "it went very well" (first reported at 2026-09-22T18:27:55.518735200Z)
Breaking News: Iran's foreign minister Araghchi met with Witkoff and Kushner on the sideline of the UN General Assembly today. This is the first direct meeting between U.S. and Iran since the peace deal fell apart. They discussed finding a path to a diplomatic deal, officials said. • •
President Trump said talks between US & Iranian officials lasted 3 hours and wrapped around 1p. If that timing is right, the meeting was already underway as Trump was contemplating annihilating Iran and predicting a deal wouldn’t happen until after the midterms during his UNGA speech.
Trump says US and Iranian officials met today for 3 hours, calling it productive and saying they’ll meet again in the near future, their first meeting since June. Earlier Trump warned that he had a decision to make over where or not to annihilate Iran, or to make a deal.
[UPDATE] Trump says US officials met with Iranian team (first reported at 2026-09-22T13:05:48Z)
Live: Iran and U.S. have held peace talks today, Trump says
FWD from Tehran Times in Persian: Headline 1, Tehran Times reports and notes Headline 1
Iran rejects talks with US until conditions are met
Iran's Supreme National Security Council urges negotiators not to be fooled by US President's contradictory messages Tehran Times exclusive interview with symphony conductor Paniez Faryousefi, conductor: "I want my music to be a message of Iranian unity and world peace" Exclusive notes from America and Lebanon War with Iran, the biggest mistake in American history Ali al-Taher; Why did Netanyahu need to close? Analytical reports
Battle of Bab al-Mandeb; Trump is watching NASA documentary confirms mass AI massacre in Gaza, prompts accusations of “treason” Tehran Times today: #front_page September 16, 2026 Follow us on: Website: X: Instagram: instagram.com/tehrantimes79 YouTube: @tehrantimesplus Download all pages of Tehran Times
When will the Iran war end, US President Donald Trump said: "This war will end right after our election." The 2026 United States election is a series of elections, most of which will be held in the United States on November 3, 2026 (12 Aban 1405). Trump explained: "They are desperately trying to influence the outcome of the election so that a bunch of weak, compromised people will come to power; and then we will leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapons. All they want is a nuclear weapon; And as quickly as possible.” Trump said about the possibility of an agreement with the Islamic Republic that we are no longer looking for such an agreement. The US President immediately said: “There may be a negotiation, but that is not what we are focused on right now.” The US President added: “I am doing something much more than a nuclear agreement. We will reach a nuclear agreement; that is almost certain, 99.9 percent. But there will be many other issues on the table that were not even on the table three months ago.”
A US Official : We expect the next round of talks in Rome later this month, consistent with planning that has been in place for weeks. • • Sources talks me ongoing be around 14 & 15 of September’s • • The US official said there is a lot of fake news surrounding this round of negotiations, as bad faith actors try to manufacture a bad atmosphere & this is not to be believed.
With the memorandum of understanding now expired, the pressure on Iran isn't letting up. • • The U.S. blockade remains in place, Iran continues targeting vessels and a diplomatic solution still appears out of reach. • • Special Envoy Jared Kushner tells @TreyYingst that communications continue, but he isn't putting a timeline on a breakthrough: "When the deal is ready, the deal will be ready." • • Iran responds with a message of its own, calling for "patience, solidarity and hope" as the country faces what it describes as ever-increasing "pressures and threats."
Live: What has happened since the US-Iran MoU was signed?
The 60-day window for US-Iran negotiations expired, fading hopes for a peace agreement and causing a slight rise in oil prices.
Fox News reported that the 60-day deadline set in the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington expires on Monday, while diplomatic efforts to reach a new agreement have made only limited progress. According to Fox News, the escalation of tensions in the region has also presented serious obstacles to the process of diplomatic talks. Reported by Amir Giti, Iran International correspondent
US-Iran talks to end hostilities are due today as the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz escalates into a series of attacks; President Trump is expected to strengthen economic sanctions this week.
A senior Iranian government source told Reuters that there were no talks underway between the Islamic Republic and the United States to extend the 60-day ceasefire, and that Tehran saw no date for the ceasefire to start that could be extended. "There has been absolutely no progress on this issue," the source said, referring to the state of the talks. "One of the issues being discussed was the US returning to the agreement and setting a timetable for implementing Washington's commitments," he added. "The US violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew a few days later," the source said. "From Iran's perspective, there is no start date for the ceasefire, so there is nothing to extend."
Sources following the negotiations told LBCI that a preliminary date for a new round of talks is set for September 1st, and that the American side has pledged to follow up on the issues of prisoners and borders with both sides during the interim period.
ODDS OF A US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING BY SEPT 30 RISE TO 69% • • The contract is up 16 points, with more than $8.1M in volume, per Polymarket .com. • • Sponsored by Polymarket
US President Donald Trump announces that negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume today, Monday, expressing optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement. Trump made the remarks to reporters aboard the plane as he returned from New Jersey to Washington, D.C.
Trump announced new talks between the US and Iran US President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran will begin a new round of talks on Monday. According to him, the US has decided to abandon new strikes on Iran in order to give a chance to a diplomatic settlement. Against these statements, world oil prices fell sharply: Brent fell by more than 6%, and WTI - by more than 6%. Investors expect that the talks can reduce tensions around the Iranian nuclear program and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
US President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran would resume on Monday and that he was optimistic about reaching an agreement.
Trump: * We will reach an agreement with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz and another regarding nuclear disarmament. * We are talking with the Iranians about the format of the negotiations and will begin tomorrow evening. * New talks with Iran will begin Monday after the decision to strike was reversed.
US and Iran to begin talks on Monday - Trump
Trump says the US and Iran will hold talks on the 3rd.
Where does the news lean?
47YES20NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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