Next round of US-Iran peace talksJuly 31
ResolvedOutcome: No$1.7Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iran refuses to "improve" the diplomatic proposal currently on the table, which they proposed, which talks about a 10-day ceasefire for the purpose of discussing Hormuz, two sources tell i24NEWS. In other words: there is a dialogue between the mediators, but from the Americans' perspective, the diplomatic track is currently blocked.
Round 12: US military announces end of latest wave of strikes on Iran
Pakistan, Qatar propose return to pre-July 9 positions as first step for talks • • Pakistan and Qatar submitted a joint proposal today, urging Iran and the US to return to their positions prior to July 9 as a first step toward resuming negotiations .
ISNA: Pakistan and Qatar presented a joint proposal on Monday, calling on Iran and the United States to return to their positions before July 9 as a first step to resuming negotiations. @IRIBNEWS_COM
Live: Trump says US held talks with Iran on Tuesday
YESReuters99%match20¢-100%
Trump: U.S. Held Talks with Iran on Tuesday
Live: US begins new round of strikes on Iran
The US president announced that talks with the Islamic Republic would continue at Tehran's request, but Washington also informed Islamic Republic officials that the ceasefire had ended. Meanwhile, Axios reported, citing a source familiar with the matter, that a new round of talks would likely be held in Switzerland next week. However, the Fars news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, denied the report.
July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. had agreed to talks with Iran after Tehran asked to continue negotiations, but he added that the ceasefire between the two nations was "over."
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: Clashes between the US and Iran complicate negotiations to end the war
Live: US and Iran talks conclude with 'positive' progress, mediators say
IRAN'S BAGHAEI SAYS INTERIM DEAL CLAUSES NEED TO BE IMPLEMENTED BEFORE TALKS WITH U.S. TO REACH FINAL DEAL CAN START
US forces launch renewed attacks on Iranian military facilities, citing "failure to abide by ceasefire agreement," escalating the exchange of retaliation.
The strikes targeted military observation posts, communications systems, and drone storage facilities. The US military launched additional strikes on several targets inside Iran following the latest attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
BREAKING: US STRIKES MULTIPLE TARGETS IN IRAN AT TRUMP'S DIRECTION • • The US military said Saturday it struck multiple targets in Iran at President Trump's direction, continuing a string of strikes that have strained the war's uneasy ceasefire, per AP. • • The military said on X that "Iran had a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement" but "elected not to" when its forces attacked a ship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier Saturday. Iran state TV reported explosions north of the strait. • • The strikes follow US attacks a day earlier on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar locations. The June 17 deal to end the war and reopen the waterway has continued to fray.
This second round of strikes followed a second ship being hit by IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz at 4:30 am this morning and 9 one way attack drones being fired by Iran at a US base in Bahrain last night: US official said while confirming tonight’s round of airstrikes is complete.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a statement on Sunday morning, July 28, that its forces, on the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, have launched a new round of strikes against multiple targets in Iran. Noting that after yesterday’s attacks, “Iran was given an opportunity to respect the ceasefire agreement,” CENTCOM emphasized that Tehran rejected this opportunity by launching a suicide drone at 4:30 a.m. Eastern Time today against the Panamanian tanker “M/T Kiko” containing more than two million barrels of crude oil near the Strait of Hormuz. The statement continued by stating that today’s attacks were carried out “in direct response to Iran’s continued aggression against commercial shipping,” and that American fighter jets targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense sites, drone storage, and mine-laying capabilities. CENTCOM concluded by emphasizing the continued passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, warning: "US forces remain alert, lethal and ready."
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Upon orders from President Trump, US military carries out second day of attacks against Iran. “Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to when its forces launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning,” CENTCOM says.
The US is launching a series of strikes against targets in Iran in response to the attack on the tanker - Axios journalist
01:12/ July 27
The United States has attacked targets in the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran's attacks on offending ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days, as well as this morning's Iranian attack on CENTCOM military bases in Bahrain. This time, before the US attack, Iran preemptively destroyed some of the US strategic assets that had recently been moved to the region.
The US and Iran exchange attacks, with Iran retaliating, citing "violations of the memorandum of understanding."
US strikes Iran
US strikes Iran
Where does the news lean?
25YES38NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Next round of US-Iran peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.