Next round of US-Iran peace talksJuly 17
ResolvedOutcome: No$968Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
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46 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
A new round of US strikes on Iran
Live: US-Iran attacks make return to diplomacy difficult but not impossible
The US-Iran Deal Collapsed—Is A Return To 'Full-Scale' War Next?. • Last week, President Donald Trump reportedly notified Congress that "military action" against Iran commenced July 7.
Live: Trump says US held talks with Iran on Tuesday
YESReuters99%match2¢-100%
Trump: U.S. Held Talks with Iran on Tuesday
Live: Iran leaders likely to walk away from US deal after deadly attacks
Live: US and Iran behaving as if peace deal is dead
Live: US completes latest round of strikes against Iran
Live: US begins new round of strikes on Iran
Leaks: US-Iranian negotiations expected in Switzerland next week
Axios: US-Iranian negotiations expected in Switzerland next week
Axios: US-Iranian talks expected in Switzerland next week
Axios, citing a source familiar with the matter, wrote that a new round of talks between Washington and Tehran is likely to take place next week, possibly in Switzerland. Iranian officials have not yet commented on the matter. At the same time, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he had agreed to Tehran's request to continue negotiations but told them that the ceasefire had ended.
A source told Axios that a round of negotiations between the US and Iran is expected next week in Switzerland.
Axios, citing a source: A new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is expected next week in Switzerland.
A source told Axios that a round of negotiations between the US and Iran is expected next week in Switzerland.
Axios claims, citing an informed source: A new round of Iran-US talks is expected to be held next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland @ilnair
Axios, citing a source: A new round of US-Iranian negotiations is expected to take place next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland. #Breaking #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Axios claims, citing an informed source: A new round of Iran-US talks is expected to be held next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland.
YESNews99%match25¢-100%
Sources: A new round of US-Iran talks may be held next week.
Axios, citing an informed source, wrote: A new round of talks between Washington and Tehran will likely take place next week, perhaps in Switzerland.
Axios, citing a source: A new round of US-Iranian negotiations is expected to take place next week, possibly hosted by Switzerland.
Live: Iran has asked to continue talks and the US agreed, Trump says
Iran has asked to continue talks and the US agreed, Trump says
US launches new strikes on Iran
Live: US starts new strikes against Iran
more US strikes against Iran
US strikes Iran
Israel Hume also reported that the next round of talks is scheduled to be held in Pakistan on July 11 and will focus on lifting sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets and monitoring Iran's nuclear program. The newspaper wrote that the Islamic Republic has also made an end to Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon one of its conditions for an agreement.
Pakistan Observer: Islamabad is set to host the third round of Iran-US technical talks on July 13-14. The aim of the meeting is to maintain the channel of dialogue at the expert level between the two countries and advance discussions on the issues under consideration. An Iranian delegation headed by the Interior Minister is also expected to visit Pakistan on July 8. Observers assess this visit as more than a routine meeting and attach wider importance to it.
Pakistani newspaper claims about the third round of Iran-US talks The Pakistan Observer newspaper has reported the possibility of holding the third round of Iran-US talks in Islamabad on July 14 and 15 (July 24 and 25). According to this report, before the third round of Iran-US talks, a high-ranking delegation from Iran, headed by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, is scheduled to leave for Pakistan in the coming days and after the funeral of the martyred leader. The news of this trip was previously announced at a joint press conference by Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Iranian officials during the Pakistani official's visit to Iran. @ilnair
Live: US and Iran talks conclude with 'positive' progress, mediators say
#Breaking | Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ismail Baghaei:
The terms of the interim agreement must be implemented before talks with the US can begin to reach a final agreement.
The communication channel between Iran and the US is political, not military.
NOReuters99%match36¢+178%
Iran’s Baghaei Says Interim Deal Clauses Need to Be Implemented Before Talks with U.S. to Reach Final Deal Can Start
Event sources: Indirect negotiations on Wednesday between US and Iranian delegations
US forces launch renewed attacks on Iranian military facilities, citing "failure to abide by ceasefire agreement," escalating the exchange of retaliation.
US military says it struck multiple targets in Iran as ceasefire is strained by 2nd day of attacks
BREAKING: US STRIKES MULTIPLE TARGETS IN IRAN AT TRUMP'S DIRECTION • • The US military said Saturday it struck multiple targets in Iran at President Trump's direction, continuing a string of strikes that have strained the war's uneasy ceasefire, per AP. • • The military said on X that "Iran had a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement" but "elected not to" when its forces attacked a ship near the Strait of Hormuz earlier Saturday. Iran state TV reported explosions north of the strait. • • The strikes follow US attacks a day earlier on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar locations. The June 17 deal to end the war and reopen the waterway has continued to fray.
This second round of strikes followed a second ship being hit by IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz at 4:30 am this morning and 9 one way attack drones being fired by Iran at a US base in Bahrain last night: US official said while confirming tonight’s round of airstrikes is complete.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a statement on Sunday morning, July 28, that its forces, on the orders of the Commander-in-Chief, have launched a new round of strikes against multiple targets in Iran. Noting that after yesterday’s attacks, “Iran was given an opportunity to respect the ceasefire agreement,” CENTCOM emphasized that Tehran rejected this opportunity by launching a suicide drone at 4:30 a.m. Eastern Time today against the Panamanian tanker “M/T Kiko” containing more than two million barrels of crude oil near the Strait of Hormuz. The statement continued by stating that today’s attacks were carried out “in direct response to Iran’s continued aggression against commercial shipping,” and that American fighter jets targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense sites, drone storage, and mine-laying capabilities. CENTCOM concluded by emphasizing the continued passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, warning: "US forces remain alert, lethal and ready."
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Upon orders from President Trump, US military carries out second day of attacks against Iran. “Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to when its forces launched a one-way attack drone that hit M/T Kiku this morning,” CENTCOM says.
The US is launching a series of strikes against targets in Iran in response to the attack on the tanker - Axios journalist
01:12/ July 27
The United States has attacked targets in the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran's attacks on offending ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days, as well as this morning's Iranian attack on CENTCOM military bases in Bahrain. This time, before the US attack, Iran preemptively destroyed some of the US strategic assets that had recently been moved to the region.
The US and Iran exchange attacks, with Iran retaliating, citing "violations of the memorandum of understanding."
US strikes Iran
US strikes Iran
Where does the news lean?
26YES60NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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