Next round of US-Iran peace talksMarch 31, 2027
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$452Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
“U.S. and Iran hold 3-hour meeting at UN”... Will high-level ‘direct channel’ reopen?
[UPDATE] US and Iran hold first talks since June as Trump threatens ‘annihilation’ (first reported at 2026-09-22T16:14:50Z)
The US and Iran meet for the first time in months
A US source who attended the meeting with the Iranian delegation announced that the chances of reaching an agreement are limited. The source added that significant differences and obstacles remain between the two sides. The source also stated that Washington rejected Tehran's request to lift the sanctions.
U.S. and Iran hold 3-hour talks at UN headquarters... Trump says "agreement is favorable to Iran" (Roundup)
U.S. And Iran Officials Met To Discuss The War. Stocks Were Mixed.. • "I think there's a lot of momentum for them to make a deal. That's what we are hearing from everybody," Trump said after the meeting.
[UPDATE] Barak Ravid: U.S. and Iran officials meet in New York to discuss ending the war (first reported at 2026-09-22T15:07:23Z)
[UPDATE] US-Iran delegation holds 3-hour negotiations in New York; Trump says "it went very well" (first reported at 2026-09-22T18:27:55.518735200Z)
Breaking News: Iran's foreign minister Araghchi met with Witkoff and Kushner on the sideline of the UN General Assembly today. This is the first direct meeting between U.S. and Iran since the peace deal fell apart. They discussed finding a path to a diplomatic deal, officials said. • •
President Trump said talks between US & Iranian officials lasted 3 hours and wrapped around 1p. If that timing is right, the meeting was already underway as Trump was contemplating annihilating Iran and predicting a deal wouldn’t happen until after the midterms during his UNGA speech.
Trump says US and Iranian officials met today for 3 hours, calling it productive and saying they’ll meet again in the near future, their first meeting since June. Earlier Trump warned that he had a decision to make over where or not to annihilate Iran, or to make a deal.
Live: Trump says another US-Iran set of talks scheduled in ‘near future’
Live: Iran and U.S. have held peace talks today, Trump says
US-Iran talks appear likely to resume; Iran conveys seven negotiating conditions to the US.
Where does the news lean?
19YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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