Next round of US-Iran peace talksJune 26
ResolvedOutcome: No$117Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The stances in Iran regarding the Islamic Republic's understanding with the United States have intensified in recent days, in the absence of the public presence of Mojtaba Khamenei, and have continued in Friday prayer sermons in several cities. The Friday prayer imam of Mashhad told the negotiating team: "Do not make deals with the murderer of our martyred Imam." Hossein Yekta, a commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, also said that the experience of Ruhollah Khomeini's acceptance of the resolution should not be repeated. A conversation with Alam Saleh, Associate Professor of International Relations at the Australian National University, and Jaber Rajabi, political analyst
US strikes Iran
US strikes Iran
Trump again accused Iran of violating the ceasefire, but did not say whether the US would respond.
Phone call between the Foreign Ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Foreign Minister of the UAE In a telephone conversation this afternoon between Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates, and Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of our country, the latest regional developments and events were discussed and exchanged in light of the understanding reached between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America. The Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates also emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue and utilizing diplomatic solutions, and expressed hope that the current diplomatic process will lead to constructive results in strengthening regional peace, security, and stability. @s_a_araghchi
Phone call between the Foreign Ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Foreign Minister of the UAE In a telephone conversation this afternoon between Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Arab Emirates, and Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of our country, the latest regional developments and events were discussed and exchanged in light of the understanding reached between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America. The Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates also emphasized the importance of continuing dialogue and utilizing diplomatic solutions, and expressed hope that the current diplomatic process will lead to constructive results in strengthening regional peace, security, and stability. @s_a_araghchi
Live from Al Arabiya | This Week and Beyond: Technical negotiations between the US and Iran in two days in Switzerland... at the expert level... with mediators present.
Where does the news lean?
0YES7NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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