Next round of US-Iran peace talksOctober 31, 2026
Open$335Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 98% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES98¢
NO2¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
[UPDATE] US-Iran delegation holds 3-hour negotiations in New York; Trump says "it went very well" (first reported at 2026-09-22T18:27:55.518735200Z)
Breaking News: Iran's foreign minister Araghchi met with Witkoff and Kushner on the sideline of the UN General Assembly today. This is the first direct meeting between U.S. and Iran since the peace deal fell apart. They discussed finding a path to a diplomatic deal, officials said. • •
President Trump said talks between US & Iranian officials lasted 3 hours and wrapped around 1p. If that timing is right, the meeting was already underway as Trump was contemplating annihilating Iran and predicting a deal wouldn’t happen until after the midterms during his UNGA speech.
Trump says US and Iranian officials met today for 3 hours, calling it productive and saying they’ll meet again in the near future, their first meeting since June. Earlier Trump warned that he had a decision to make over where or not to annihilate Iran, or to make a deal.
Live: Trump says another US-Iran set of talks scheduled in ‘near future’
Axios, citing a US official: The next round of formal negotiations will take place in Rome in October.
A US State Department official said the next round of formal talks will be held in Rome next October.
Where does the news lean?
13YES2NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans YES at 62% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Next round of US-Iran peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.