Iran leader end of 2026?
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Market pricing makes Mojtaba Khamenei the favorite at 88% across 123 tracked outcomes, as of .
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Saleh Hamid, an expert on Iranian affairs with Al-Hadath TV, stated: "The Iranian regime has multiple heads... and there are reports that the final decision rests with the Revolutionary Guard, which directly influences Mojtaba Khamenei."
Gholamali Haddad Adel, member of the Expediency Discernment Council: The military and security forces take any threat against the country seriously. If the enemy commits an unwise act, the military and security forces will respond with full readiness. The current war between Iran and the United States is, above all, a "battle of resilience."
Among them are Mohsen Rezaei and Ahmad Vahidi... Al Arabiya's Iran expert, Masoud Al-Fak, reveals the roles of 5 commanders who receive their orders from Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Without exaggerating, Masoud Pezeshkian is the weakest president Iran has seen in decades. It's not just because of the war. Pezeshkian, a former MP, began hollowing out his own executive authority and the institution of the presidency from Day 1; his excess fealty to Ali Khamenei was exhibited in his decision to submit his entire proposed cabinet to the supreme leader for review/approval before presenting it to the parliament. Previously, only four key ministerial picks were consulted on with the supreme leader. • • Pezeshkian's calculation was likely that it was the path to a quick confirmation by a conservative-dominated parliament. But in the process, it fundamentally undermined the authority of his office. • • Today, even with a supreme leader in apparent occultation, Pezeshkian has been unable to reassert his executive authority anywhere near what we saw under Rouhani or Ahmadinejad etc. • • No one can predict the end result of all this, but the Islamic Republic may soon be over in terms of its republican aspect. That would not come as a shock to many in Tehran. Ali Khamenei openly spoke about his preference for a parliamentary system. Whether there was any room for even a ceremonial president in such a setup, as was the case in Iran in the 1980s, nobody knows. Those who will live to witness post-Pezeshkian Iran may find out.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the Islamic Republic, said that he met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for about seven hours “about a month, a month and a half ago” and that he is “completely” capable of governing.
In response to Fox News’ Bert Baier’s question about “whether the leader is healthy and capable of governing,” Pezeshkian said that the government is responsible for implementing policies, but “advice and guidance” come from Khamenei.
He added that the Islamic Republic “will resist until the last moment.”
In the interview, which aired on October 2, Pezeshkian said: “We definitely have economic problems, but we will endure any hardship to stay.”
Sadegh Amoli Larijani, head of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council: "The stances of the President of the Revolutionary Republic in defending the resistance were the cry of the oppressed and powerful Iranian people." #Iran
Live: Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has begun his speech at the General Assembly. He held up pictures of Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of U.S and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. He also held up a picture of Iranian schoolchildren killed the same day in U.S. airstrikes.
Mojtaba Khamenei, Leader of the Islamic Republic: Students must fulfill their historic mission to elevate Iran by breaking the boundaries of knowledge and conquering the peaks of progress.
Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, issued a condolence message following the passing of Grand Ayatollah Shubayri Zanjani on September 22, 2026.
Between his assassination and the management of the country's affairs by foreign powers... The Financial Times reports Iranian speculations about the fate of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been missing for six months.
Iran is searching for its Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei's absence fuels growing speculation.
Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father after his assassination last February, but has not appeared in public since. How is Iran working to maintain the legitimacy of the supreme leader, and how might his continued absence affect the stability of the regime? My new article on @INSS_Hebrew
Nasir Hosseini, the Friday prayer leader in Yasuj, said in his sermons that Mojtaba Khamenei is in perfect health and is continuously active for more than 10 hours a day. Hosseini continued: "People who attended the funeral of the martyred leader in Mashhad witnessed the presence of the revolutionary leader, and this presence put an end to the rumors of the enemies." This Friday prayer leader's words come at a time when no images or audio files of Mojtaba Khamenei have been published since the day Ali Khamenei was killed on March 21, 1404, and there has been no news about his presence at his father's funeral.
Six months after Mojtaba Khamenei's disappearance, his brother-in-law revealed that Ali Khamenei had handed over the country's political, security and financial affairs to his son 25 years ago. At the same time, the Sunday Times reported that his two luxury apartments in London were put up for sale for £36 million. Report by Mojtaba Pourmohsen
Al Arabiya's Iran affairs journalist, Musa al-Sharifi: Hassan Rouhani's call for a referendum on the war remains theoretical and merely symbolic... and the Iranian constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament for any referendum.
"The Prophet Muhammad consulted the people, and no one rules by divine mandate." Hassan Rouhani calls for a referendum on the continuation of the war.
====== Hassan Rouhani calls for a referendum on the Iranian people's opinion before continuing the confrontation with the major powers for another 20 years, and for yielding to their wishes. Iranian websites broadcast a video recording of a meeting Rouhani held on August 31 with officials who served during his administration. The former Iranian president emphasizes that positions are a public trust, and that no one possesses the authority to rule by themselves or by divine mandate. Rouhani cites the Prophet's approach of consulting the people to emphasize the necessity of returning to the citizens, who are the true source of authority and power. Rouhani's statements align with the positions of President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, who support the option of negotiating with Washington.
The absence of Mojtaba Khamenei continues as power gaps in the Islamic Republic widen. Political analyst Jaber Rajabi said security reasons cannot be a sufficient explanation for the absence and that his absence, even if present, has deepened the existing vacuum, given his limited position and power.
Mehrdad Ghasemfar, a journalist and analyst of Iranian affairs, referred to Trump's statements about Mojtaba Khamenei's physical condition and said that the main issue is not just whether he is alive or not, but his real ability to lead the Islamic Republic, control internal disputes, and manage crises. He added that if Mojtaba Khamenei cannot fulfill Ali Khamenei's arbitration role in key decisions, from negotiating with the United States and continuing the war to dividing resources between power centers, the Islamic Republic will be further pushed toward a serious existential crisis.
Jamshid Barzegar, a journalist and political analyst, said that in the absence of Mojtaba Khamenei, the main decisions in the Islamic Republic have been in the hands of a core group of figures close to the Revolutionary Guards, including Ahmad Vahidi, Mohsen Rezaei, Hossein Taeb, and Ali Abdollahi. He added that the statements and positions of officials such as Masoud Pezzekian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also indicate the intensification of differences between these movements. He also said that using the name of Mojtaba Khamenei may hide the differences within the government in the short term, but in the long term it will become a problem for the decision-making system of the Islamic Republic; because as his absence continues, the ambiguity about the real authority for decision-making and issuing rulings in the Islamic Republic will increase.
From the decree issued by Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the Leader and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, appointing Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) en.rahbar.ir | @MKhamenei_en
Former Mauritanian Information Minister Mohamed Amin: Iran is ruled by senior generals, and Mojtaba Khamenei doesn't even exist. Ali Larijani proposed this idea before his death to prevent a power struggle over the position of Supreme Leader among senior Shiite clerics. #Debatable Full episode:
Rastineh, a member of the parliamentary cultural commission, said about the appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards by Mojtaba Khamenei: "The message of this appointment is that the Islamic Republic will use all its capabilities to defeat the enemy in a combined war."
Mojtaba Khamenei, the new leader of the Islamic Republic, appointed seven senior military and security officials on August 10. These appointments have further enhanced the position of military and security figures in the Islamic Republic's power structure following the war with the United States and Israel.
In a telephone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sana, Masoud Pezeshkian said about recent developments, "The Islamic Republic has not acted outside international law." The head of state of the Islamic Republic stated in this conversation: "The Islamic Republic has in no way sought unrest in the region, and I hope that Japan's diplomatic efforts to establish peace and stability in the region will be fruitful." Pezeshkian also added that Israel and the United States "have caused the disruption of peace and stability in the region."
165 days after Ali Khamenei was killed, the mayor of Tehran told the student news agency Daneshjo that a missile had directly hit the house of Mojtaba Khamenei on March 29. According to Alireza Zakani, the new leader and his wife were leaving the house when the attack injured Mojtaba Khamenei and killed his wife. Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a member of the editorial staff of Iran International, referred to these statements and said that the absence of any images, videos or handwriting of the new leader of the Islamic Republic casts doubt on the narrative of his complete health and strengthens the hypothesis that he was injured.
165 days after Ali Khamenei was killed, the mayor of Tehran told the student news agency that on March 29, a missile hit directly at the house of Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Alireza Zakani, the new leader and his wife were leaving the house when the attack injured Mojtaba Khamenei and killed his wife. Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a member of the editorial staff of Iran International, referred to these statements and said that the absence of any images, videos or handwriting of the new leader of the Islamic Republic casts doubt on the narrative of his complete health and strengthens the hypothesis that he was injured.
More than seven months after the assassinations of key figures in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has chosen his men to lead the military establishment, and reports indicate the formation of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
More than seven months after the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei is choosing his men to lead the military establishment, and reports speak of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
CNN wrote in a report that Mojtaba Khamenei's new appointments to senior security positions in the Islamic Republic indicate the power structure's move towards a more aggressive approach in the foreign arena and a more secure domestic environment.
The recent appointments confirm the strong presence of Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei as a leader and indicate that his era will be focused on security, strategy, and politics. The recent appointments in Iran suggest Tehran's readiness to play a leading role at both the regional and international levels. Rony Alfa, Beirut Bureau Chief @alpha_rony
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.