Iran leader end of 2026?

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Market pricing makes Mojtaba Khamenei the favorite at 83% across 123 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl94%match18¢-6%
The absence of Mojtaba Khamenei continues as power gaps in the Islamic Republic widen. Political analyst Jaber Rajabi said security reasons cannot be a sufficient explanation for the absence and that his absence, even if present, has deepened the existing vacuum, given his limited position and power.
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl95%match19¢-11%
Mehrdad Ghasemfar, a journalist and analyst of Iranian affairs, referred to Trump's statements about Mojtaba Khamenei's physical condition and said that the main issue is not just whether he is alive or not, but his real ability to lead the Islamic Republic, control internal disputes, and manage crises. He added that if Mojtaba Khamenei cannot fulfill Ali Khamenei's arbitration role in key decisions, from negotiating with the United States and continuing the war to dividing resources between power centers, the Islamic Republic will be further pushed toward a serious existential crisis.
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl97%match20¢-15%
Jamshid Barzegar, a journalist and political analyst, said that in the absence of Mojtaba Khamenei, the main decisions in the Islamic Republic have been in the hands of a core group of figures close to the Revolutionary Guards, including Ahmad Vahidi, Mohsen Rezaei, Hossein Taeb, and Ali Abdollahi. He added that the statements and positions of officials such as Masoud Pezzekian and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also indicate the intensification of differences between these movements. He also said that using the name of Mojtaba Khamenei may hide the differences within the government in the short term, but in the long term it will become a problem for the decision-making system of the Islamic Republic; because as his absence continues, the ambiguity about the real authority for decision-making and issuing rulings in the Islamic Republic will increase.
From the decree issued by Imam Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the Leader and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, appointing Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) en.rahbar.ir | @MKhamenei_en
Mojtaba Khameneialarabiya93%match18¢-6%
Former Mauritanian Information Minister Mohamed Amin: Iran is ruled by senior generals, and Mojtaba Khamenei doesn't even exist. Ali Larijani proposed this idea before his death to prevent a power struggle over the position of Supreme Leader among senior Shiite clerics. #Debatable Full episode:
Rastineh, a member of the parliamentary cultural commission, said about the appointment of Ahmad Vahidi as commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards by Mojtaba Khamenei: "The message of this appointment is that the Islamic Republic will use all its capabilities to defeat the enemy in a combined war."
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl97%match81¢+2%
Mojtaba Khamenei, the new leader of the Islamic Republic, appointed seven senior military and security officials on August 10. These appointments have further enhanced the position of military and security figures in the Islamic Republic's power structure following the war with the United States and Israel.
In a telephone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sana, Masoud Pezeshkian said about recent developments, "The Islamic Republic has not acted outside international law." The head of state of the Islamic Republic stated in this conversation: "The Islamic Republic has in no way sought unrest in the region, and I hope that Japan's diplomatic efforts to establish peace and stability in the region will be fruitful." Pezeshkian also added that Israel and the United States "have caused the disruption of peace and stability in the region."
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl94%match19¢-11%
165 days after Ali Khamenei was killed, the mayor of Tehran told the student news agency Daneshjo that a missile had directly hit the house of Mojtaba Khamenei on March 29. According to Alireza Zakani, the new leader and his wife were leaving the house when the attack injured Mojtaba Khamenei and killed his wife. Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a member of the editorial staff of Iran International, referred to these statements and said that the absence of any images, videos or handwriting of the new leader of the Islamic Republic casts doubt on the narrative of his complete health and strengthens the hypothesis that he was injured.
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl95%match19¢-11%
165 days after Ali Khamenei was killed, the mayor of Tehran told the student news agency that on March 29, a missile hit directly at the house of Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Alireza Zakani, the new leader and his wife were leaving the house when the attack injured Mojtaba Khamenei and killed his wife. Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a member of the editorial staff of Iran International, referred to these statements and said that the absence of any images, videos or handwriting of the new leader of the Islamic Republic casts doubt on the narrative of his complete health and strengthens the hypothesis that he was injured.
Mojtaba Khameneialarabiya93%match81¢+2%
More than seven months after the assassinations of key figures in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has chosen his men to lead the military establishment, and reports indicate the formation of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
Mojtaba Khameneialarabiya95%match81¢+2%
More than seven months after the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei is choosing his men to lead the military establishment, and reports speak of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintlbrk92%match81¢+2%
CNN wrote in a report that Mojtaba Khamenei's new appointments to senior security positions in the Islamic Republic indicate the power structure's move towards a more aggressive approach in the foreign arena and a more secure domestic environment.
The recent appointments confirm the strong presence of Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei as a leader and indicate that his era will be focused on security, strategy, and politics. The recent appointments in Iran suggest Tehran's readiness to play a leading role at both the regional and international levels. Rony Alfa, Beirut Bureau Chief @alpha_rony
Congratulatory message from the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces following the appointment of the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC Honorable brother, Major General Ahmad Vahidi; Peace be upon you I sincerely congratulate and congratulate the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Supreme Commander) on the trust in granting you the rank of Major General and appointing you to the position of "Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps", which reflects the merit, competence, and rich and distinguished capabilities of that esteemed brother. Undoubtedly, this blessed event is a strategic step on the path of consolidating sustainable security and the ever-increasing excellence of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran. While valuing the IRGC's relentless and history-making efforts in numerous areas of safeguarding the Islamic Revolution in the areas of defense, security, and the elimination of deprivation, I emphasize the complete and comprehensive readiness of the Armed Forces General Staff to support, accompany, and strategically support that revolutionary and popular institution. The Armed Forces General Staff, with a deep understanding of the serious and multiple missions of the powerful People's Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Mobilization of the Underprivileged, is determined to use its capacities to achieve: 1. Improving the IRGC's defense and security capabilities, commensurate with new and complex regional and trans-regional threats; 2. Updating equipment, systems, and operational structures based on advanced technologies and field needs; 3. Providing full and timely mission requirements in the fields of missiles, drones, sea, land, cyberspace, and asymmetric warfare; 4. Strengthening inter-force coordination for maximum utilization of the country's defense capabilities; 5. Empowering the Basij of the Oppressed as a huge popular reserve and a powerful arm of the revolution in all arenas by deepening the empathy, unity of approach, and strategic coordination existing in the country's armed forces to confront any threat and conspiracy of the enemies, online, and strengthen the deterrent authority and the strong and impenetrable barrier of Islamic Iran against them. I ask God Almighty for the continued success and pride of that distinguished general and all the brave and warrior commanders, officials, and staff of the Revolutionary Guard, under the care of His Majesty the Crown Prince (a.s.) and following the wise measures, orders, and guidelines of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and the honorable Commander of the Supreme Powers, His Eminence Imam Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei (may Allah protect him) @Farsna [in reply to: ‌ The Leader of the Revolution appointed 6 high-ranking commanders His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, The Supreme Commander-in-Chief issued separate decrees announcing the responsibilities and missions of six high-ranking commanders and managers of the armed forces. Based on these decrees, Major General Ali Abdullahi, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and Brigadier General Kiyomars Heydari, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, were appointed. Also, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, with the rank of Major General, was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Major General Mustafa Izadi, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Guard Corps. Following these decrees, the responsibility of commanding the IRGC Navy was assigned to Admiral Ali Ozamai, and the chairmanship of the Basij Organization for the Oppressed was assigned to Hojjatoleslam Wal-Muslimin Hossein Taeb. @Farsna]
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl93%match81¢+2%
Morteza Kazemian, a member of the editorial board of Iran International, referring to the appointment of six senior commanders of the Islamic Republic's armed forces by Mojtaba Khamenei, said that after months of being out of sight, he is trying to directly take command of the military and security structure and prepare himself for a long-term war.
Mojtaba Khameneichinesewsj93%match81¢+2%
Mojtaba Khamenei's most significant government reshuffle since taking power: appointing a group of experienced hardliners to head Iran's security policy and repressive apparatus. Analysts point out that these appointments demonstrate his determination to hold firm to his bottom line in his confrontation with Trump.
Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi's congratulatory message to six high-ranking commanders in the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Basij of the Oppressed In a message, Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi congratulated six high-ranking commanders and managers of the armed forces on the announcement of the responsibilities and missions of their commanders and managers by His Highness Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The text of the Foreign Minister's congratulatory message is as follows: In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful Esteemed brothers; Major General of the Revolutionary Guards Pilot Ali Abdullahi, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Brigadier General Kiyomars Heydari, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Major General of the Revolutionary Guards Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Major General of the Revolutionary Guards Mustafa Izadi, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Admiral Ali Ozmaei, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Hojatoleslam Walmuslimin Hossein Taeb, Head of the Basij Mostazafin Organization I sincerely congratulate the Supreme Leader on the trust he has placed in each of you, dear brothers, and on granting you important and important responsibilities; A trust that is the result of years of struggle, experience, and valuable services in defending Islamic Iran and safeguarding the country's security, independence, and territorial integrity. In the two recent imposed wars, clear manifestations of these valuable records were also displayed in the steadfastness and courageous defense of dear Iran. It is hoped that by relying on God Almighty and seeking the blessings of the Imam of the Age (a.s.), in the light of the guidelines and measures of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, and by benefiting from the valuable experiences and precious accumulations of years of service, you will be successful and proud, as in the past, on the path of safeguarding the security, dignity, and authority of dear Iran. Seyyed Abbas Araghchi Minister of Foreign Affairs @MFAIran
Mojtaba Khameneialarabiya93%match81¢+2%
Why did Mojtaba Khamenei choose military leaders listed on international sanctions lists? Political science professor Hossein Rouyvaran: Iran anticipated the American attack and therefore had a replacement for every official... and Zolqadr resigned for whatever reason, so the Supreme Leader appointed Rezaei.
Abbas Araghchilivesquawk94%match100¢
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Monday the appointments reflected the commanders’ wartime experience after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed six senior military commanders. • • Araghchi said the six commanders had demonstrated their experience during the “two recent imposed wars” in a post on his Telegram channel. • • Ghalibaf said Ahmad Vahidi had led the IRGC during the recent 40-day war and said the force should continue its path “by drawing on the guidance of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,” according to a statement reported by state media.
Mojtaba Khameneiiranintl94%match81¢+2%
Mojtaba to Mohsen Rezaei: "With me, in Yemen!" By issuing six military and two civilian decrees, Mojtaba Khamenei revealed his first power structure: Ahmad Vahidi at the head of the IRGC, Hossein Taeb at the head of the Basij, Mohsen Rezaei at the Supreme National Security Council and a group of loyal commanders; decrees that, more than being a sign of change, send a message of continued repression at home and adventurism abroad. Kambiz Hosseini examines Mojtaba's new decrees on "The Program"; a structure with a clear message: "With me, in Yemen!" "One Iran hears your voice" Monday to Thursday 11pm Tehran From Iran International TV Watch the full version of this episode of "The Program" on YouTube:
Mojtaba Khameneialarabiya93%match81¢+2%
A decree from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffles the Iranian military establishment: Ahmad Vahidi heads the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Abdollahi becomes Chief of Staff of the Army, and Hossein Taeb leads the Basij.
Ahmad Vahidialarabiya96%match99¢
A decree from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffles the Iranian military establishment: Ahmad Vahidi heads the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Abdollahi becomes Chief of Staff of the Army, and Hossein Taeb leads the Basij.
Ahmad Vahidialarabiya94%match99¢
A decree from Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffles the Iranian military establishment: Ahmad Vahidi heads the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Abdollahi becomes Chief of Staff of the Army, and Hossein Taeb leads the Basij.
Masoud Pezeshkianaa_arabic93%match100¢-1%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in good health, contrary to reports of his illness. My meeting with Khamenei on Sunday was "fruitful" and lasted 7 hours. We discussed all issues and listened to Khamenei's directives.
Ahmad Vahidialarabiya92%match99¢
First military appointments for Mojtaba Khamenei: Ahmad Vahidi leads the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Taeb heads the Basij, and sweeping changes affect the Iranian army.
Major General Ahmad Vahidi; From the founding of the Quds Force to the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC Learn more about the commanders whose appointment orders were published tonight by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, who has been in the IRGC since 1970, is one of the few commanders who has held positions in the fields of intelligence, the Special Forces Command, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Interior. He first worked as the head and deputy head of intelligence for the IRGC in the 1980s, and was then appointed as the first commander of the IRGC's Quds Force; a position that continued until 1997. After that, Sardar Vahidi went to the Ministry of Defense and became the "Deputy for Planning and Programming" and then the "Acting Minister of Defense". In the 10th government, from 2009 to 2013, he was the "Minister of Defense and Support of the Armed Forces" and then took on the "Head of the Center for Strategic Defense Research" and the "Head of the Higher National Defense University". Sardar Vahidi was also the "Minister of Interior" in the 13th government and was praised by the martyr Imam in public speeches due to his quick and timely actions in dealing with incidents. After the change of government, Sardar Vahidi went to the General Staff of the Armed Forces and was then appointed as the "Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards" on 10th of January 1404. This renowned general has now been appointed as the "Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps" by order of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei. @TasnimNews
Ahmad Vahidialarabiya94%match99¢
First military appointments for Mojtaba Khamenei: Ahmad Vahidi leads the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Taeb heads the Basij, and sweeping changes affect the army and the Revolutionary Guard in Iran.
Most notably, Ahmad Vahidi was appointed commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Mojtaba Khamenei issued a decree appointing new figures in the army and the Revolutionary Guard. Here are the most prominent appointments. #SocialSky #Iran
Congratulatory message from the head of the judiciary to Major General Ahmad Vahidi Hojjatoleslamwalmuslimin Mohseni Ejei, in a message, congratulated Major General Ahmad Vahidi on his appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I sincerely congratulate you on your worthy appointment by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which reflects your commitment and valuable experiences in the combat and management fields. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a unique, distinguished and determined institution that is full of dedicated and dedicated people. Presence at the head of this sacred institution is a great blessing and gift, and it is hoped that Your Excellency, with your wisdom and expertise, will fully benefit from this blessing and gift and be a source of influence in making the dear Guard even more proud than before. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus‏ [in reply to: Appointment of Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as Commander-in-Chief of the Revolutionary Guards by the decree of His Highness Ayatollah Khamenei His Highness Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, in a decree appointed Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Text of the decree of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces: In view of the honorable and proud martyrdom of Lieutenant General Mohammad Pakpour at the hands of the Zionist-American enemy, and with In recognition of your meritorious services and valuable experiences, I hereby appoint you as Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with the rank of Major General. In a situation where the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran is in a strategic and fateful confrontation with global arrogance, the following demands are expected to be met: Continuous and comprehensive improvement of capabilities for the purpose of maximum deterrence and intelligent preparation for carrying out powerful offensive operations against the enemy Cultural advancement in the IRGC organization and strengthening piety, insight, and revolutionary spirit as the inner core of the IRGC members and commanders Expanding management and command with spiritual and scientific strength and new skills in the organizational hierarchy It is hoped that, under the prayers and intercession of our Master (may Allah hasten His return), all the armed forces of the sacred system will achieve double successes and successive conquests. Become the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus‏]

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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