Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei
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The market prices a 83% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES83¢
NO17¢
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Mojtaba Khamenei, the new leader of the Islamic Republic, appointed seven senior military and security officials on August 10. These appointments have further enhanced the position of military and security figures in the Islamic Republic's power structure following the war with the United States and Israel.
More than seven months after the assassinations of key figures in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has chosen his men to lead the military establishment, and reports indicate the formation of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
More than seven months after the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei is choosing his men to lead the military establishment, and reports speak of a six-member command center to expedite coordination between the army and the Revolutionary Guard.
CNN wrote in a report that Mojtaba Khamenei's new appointments to senior security positions in the Islamic Republic indicate the power structure's move towards a more aggressive approach in the foreign arena and a more secure domestic environment.
Morteza Kazemian, a member of the editorial board of Iran International, referring to the appointment of six senior commanders of the Islamic Republic's armed forces by Mojtaba Khamenei, said that after months of being out of sight, he is trying to directly take command of the military and security structure and prepare himself for a long-term war.
Mojtaba Khamenei's most significant government reshuffle since taking power: appointing a group of experienced hardliners to head Iran's security policy and repressive apparatus. Analysts point out that these appointments demonstrate his determination to hold firm to his bottom line in his confrontation with Trump.
Mojtaba to Mohsen Rezaei: "With me, in Yemen!" By issuing six military and two civilian decrees, Mojtaba Khamenei revealed his first power structure: Ahmad Vahidi at the head of the IRGC, Hossein Taeb at the head of the Basij, Mohsen Rezaei at the Supreme National Security Council and a group of loyal commanders; decrees that, more than being a sign of change, send a message of continued repression at home and adventurism abroad. Kambiz Hosseini examines Mojtaba's new decrees on "The Program"; a structure with a clear message: "With me, in Yemen!" "One Iran hears your voice"
Monday to Thursday 11pm Tehran
From Iran International TV Watch the full version of this episode of "The Program" on YouTube:
A decree from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffles the Iranian military establishment: Ahmad Vahidi heads the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Abdollahi becomes Chief of Staff of the Army, and Hossein Taeb leads the Basij.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a decree appointing Major General Ali Abdollahi as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Major General Ahmad Vahidi as Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Mostafa Izadi as his deputy, and Brigadier General Ali Ozmaei as Commander of the IRGC Navy.
Mojtaba Khamenei has installed his military advisor at the top of the Islamic Republic's security apparatus. Mohsen Rezaei, the founder of the IRGC's intelligence service, one of the first institutions to suppress the regime, warned two weeks ago about internal rebellion. He will be Mojtaba's arm for foreign wars and internal wars with the people. Report by Mojtaba Pourmohsen
There have been reshuffles in Iran's top leadership: Mohsen Rezaee, an adviser to the Supreme Leader, has been appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr, who previously held this position, has been appointed as an adviser on political affairs. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei himself announced Mr. Zolghadr's new position. "Dear brother, Dr. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr, given your valuable experience, I hereby appoint you as my political adviser," the Iranian leader wrote on his social media page.
Live: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei has selected a former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to represent him on the nation’s Sup
The Iranian Supreme Leader's website on X: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and discussed the latest military and economic developments.
The office of the Iranian Supreme Leader: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei received Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. During the meeting, the two sides exchanged views in detail on the country’s issues and problems, especially meeting the people’s living needs, the current situation of the imposed war and its future, developments in the military field, strategies for securing resources, managing expenditures, foreign currencies and energy, in addition to economic cooperation with foreign parties.
With Mojtaba Khamenei's absence continuing for over five months and conflicting reports circulating about his death or serious injury, the Iranian constitution outlines three cases for removing the Supreme Leader. =========== Mojtaba Khamenei's mysterious absence from the Iranian scene has persisted for five months, fueling speculation about his fate, ranging from death to serious injury or security concerns for his life. Iran International reports the formation of a military council comprised of senior Revolutionary Guard commanders to lead Iran during this period of the Supreme Leader's absence and the difficulty in communicating with him. Article 111 of the Iranian constitution grants the Assembly of Experts the power to remove the Supreme Leader in three main cases: if he loses one of the qualifications for the position, becomes incapable of performing his duties, or is found not to have met one of the requirements for the position. The Iranian constitution does not specify the procedures for removing the Supreme Leader or the voting mechanism.
From Al Arabiya
New York Times: American officials assess that Mojtaba Khamenei is still in control of the government, but he does not yet have the absolute power and influence of his father, who ruled for more than 36 years.
Pezeshkian: Communication and coordination between me and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is increasing day by day ===== Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that communication between him and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is increasing day by day. Pezeshkian said that the Supreme Leader stressed during their meetings the necessity of ending the state of "neither war nor peace" that Iran is experiencing, emphasizing that coordination between them is ongoing to achieve this goal. The Iranian president added that his country has made progress exceeding expectations in implementing the memorandum of understanding and has focused on opening the Strait of Hormuz to oil exports, but the United States has violated its commitments, considering that this has hindered the implementation of the understandings. Mojtaba Khamenei has disappeared from public view since the assassination of his father on the first day of the American-Israeli bombing and did not attend his father's funeral. Iranian sources revealed that he was injured, which American sources say was Large. From Arabic
Mojtaba Khamenei was absent from his father's funeral in Tehran, amid speculation about his injury or fate.
#This Week's Hot Read: Mojtaba, son of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been elected as Iran's new Supreme Leader. A conservative with long-standing close ties to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mojtaba is expected to take a hardline stance against the West.
Iran: First statement by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Republic of Iran, Mr. Mojtaba Khamenei
Where does the news lean?
395YES68NO37neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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