Iran leader end of 2026?Saeed Jalili
Open$390Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Saeed Jalili, representative of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Iran's Supreme National Security Council: Revenge is the greatest right of the Iranian people at this stage and it must be achieved.
Reuters, citing an Iranian source, reports that if Iran’s Supreme National Security Council approves the agreement, it would then be sent to the Supreme Leader for final approval. • • - Notably, according to some Iranian sources circulating in recent weeks, Saeed Jalili, still formally Ali Khamenei’s representative in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has reportedly stopped regularly attending its meetings. Various speculations have emerged around the issue, ranging from possible internal disagreements over the management of the negotiations to suggestions that parts of the system may be trying to reduce the influence of the more hardline camp in the current decision-making proces • • - A timely reminder that, in the Iranian system, even at this stage, the process still appears to require multiple layers of institutional endorsement. • • #Iran #IranWar
Saeed Jalili's message following the martyrdom of Dr. Larijani and General Soleimani In the name of Allah, the Merciful The martyrdom of our dear brothers, Dr. Ali Larijani and his son, deputy and bodyguards, as well as the martyrdom of Basij Commander General Gholamreza Soleimani, is a continuation of the glorious line of sacrifice for the cause of the Islamic Revolution, which will not only not hinder this glorious movement, but will also make our people more determined to continue steadfastly on this path. These measures will not only not free the enemy from the quagmire in which he has sunk, but will also accelerate the process of his defeat and humiliation. These dear ones received the reward for their efforts to elevate Islam and the Islamic homeland with the sign of martyrdom, and by joining the martyred Imam and their other martyred companions, they are now gathered in the presence of God's Holy Place with the Prophet and his noble family, peace be upon them. May they be blessed. @TasnimNews
Saeed Jalili's message following the martyrdom of Dr. Larijani and General Soleimani In the name of Allah, the Merciful The martyrdom of our dear brothers, Dr. Ali Larijani, his son, deputy, and bodyguards, as well as the martyrdom of Basij Commander General Gholamreza Soleimani, is a continuation of the glorious line of sacrifice for the cause of the Islamic Revolution, which will not only not hinder this glorious movement, but will also make our people more determined to continue steadfastly on this path. These measures will not only not free the enemy from the quagmire in which he has sunk, but will also accelerate the process of his defeat and humiliation. These dear ones received the reward for their efforts to elevate Islam and the Islamic homeland with the badge of martyrdom, and by joining the martyred Imam and their other martyred companions, they are now gathered in the presence of God's Holy Place with the Prophet and his noble family, peace be upon them. May they be blessed. @Farsna
Saeed Jalili's message following the martyrdom of Dr. Larijani and General Soleimani In the name of Allah, the Merciful The martyrdom of our dear brothers, Dr. Ali Larijani, his son, deputy, and bodyguards, as well as the martyrdom of Basij Commander General Gholamreza Soleimani, is a continuation of the glorious line of sacrifice for the cause of the Islamic Revolution. 1/3
Saeed Jalili's message following the martyrdom of Dr. Larijani and General Soleimani In the name of Allah, the Merciful The martyrdom of our dear brothers, Dr. Ali Larijani, his son, deputy, and bodyguards, as well as the martyrdom of Basij Commander General Gholamreza Soleimani, is a continuation of the glorious line of sacrifice for the cause of the Islamic Revolution, which will not only not hinder this glorious movement, but will also make our people more determined to continue steadfastly on this path. These measures will not only not free the enemy from the quagmire in which he has sunk, but will also accelerate the process of his defeat and humiliation. These dear ones received the reward for their efforts to elevate Islam and the Islamic homeland with the badge of martyrdom, and by joining the martyred Imam and their other martyred companions, they are now gathered in the presence of God's Holy Place with the Prophet and his noble family, peace be upon them. May they be blessed. @Farsna
Where does the news lean?
8YES5NO17neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Iran leader end of 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.