Iran leader end of 2026?Reza Pahlavi
Open$677Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
SPECIAL REPORT-Regime change? Inside Reza Pahlavi’s faltering bid to lead Iran
Tehran Prosecutor's Office: Indictment in Reza Pahlavi's case sent to court The Tehran Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor's Office announced the issuance of an indictment in the Reza Pahlavi case with numerous security, terrorist, and organized crime charges, and said: The case has been sent to court after the indictment was issued.
Summary of the indictment in the Reza Pahlavi case with a selection of charges from espionage to inciting people to violence and rebellion
Summary of the indictment in the Reza Pahlavi case with a selection of charges From espionage to inciting people to violence and rebellion
@TasnimNews [in reply to: Issuance of the indictment in the case of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah Tehran Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor's Office:
Following the announcement of the crime by the General Prosecutor's Office and the Tehran Prosecutor's Office and the filing of a case in the 20th District Prosecutor's Office (Special for International Affairs) of Tehran, an extensive and specialized judicial investigation was conducted into the actions of the accused Reza Pahlavi. After completing the investigation, obtaining reports from the competent authorities, collecting evidence and documents, and taking legal measures, an indictment was issued in accordance with the law and the case was sent to the competent court for consideration. The investigation of this case covered a series of criminal actions of the accused in recent years, especially during the riots of recent years as well as the terrorist crimes of January 1402, as well as actions related to the recent imposed war, and accordingly, Numerous charges have been considered in the indictment. According to the issued indictment, the most important charges attributed in order of importance and severity are: corruption on earth through the formation, guidance and command of organized groups and networks with the aim of disrupting the security of the country and acting against the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Guidance, command, command and organization of terrorist and violent acts and financing of activities attributed to organized groups and networks. Cooperation with hostile governments during times of conflict and committing crimes against the country's external security. Espionage and intelligence and operational cooperation with foreign intelligence and military services. Instigating and commanding crimes against the physical integrity of individuals, including charges related to murder, intentional bodily harm and other crimes resulting from violent acts. Case. Ordering and directing the widespread destruction of public, government, and private property and the country's infrastructure. Ordering and directing the seizure of government facilities, organizing violent actions, arming opposition groups, and other actions attributed to public security. Incitement, encouragement, and incitement to violence, rebellion, war, killing, and disruption of order and security in the country. Propaganda activity against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
@TasnimNews]
Prince Reza Pahlavi: There is no other way but for the people to determine the future and hold free elections; I have been committed to this belief for decades and I do not seek personal power, but rather I want the people to determine their future in free elections.
Prince Reza Pahlavi: I want you to know that I am closely monitoring your situation in Iran and I know that the Islamic Republic has been greatly weakened, but its ability to suppress has not yet been completely destroyed. My entire goal is that the final action to overthrow the Islamic Republic will be with the least cost in life. Each and every one of your lives is precious to me, and I ask you to be patient and protect yourself, and to remain fully prepared and await the decisive moment with faith in victory.
YESosint61398%match16¢-81%
Reza Pahlavi: • • We are now at the decisive stage of our final struggle. • • I urge you to secure your essential provisions as soon as possible, and for your own safety, withdraw from the streets and remain in your homes. • • Continue to strike and do not show up for work. • • Continue your nightly chants to show your unity. • • To the military and law enforcement forces: this is your last chance to break from the oppressive forces and join your people. • • Await my final call.
Where does the news lean?
47YES41NO30neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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