Iran leader end of 2026?Hassan Rouhani
Open$945Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Hassan Rouhani, former head of the Islamic Republic, said in a statement after the temporary ceasefire: There is a possibility of "deception" by the US and Israel.
Hassan Rouhani, former head of the Islamic Republic, said in a statement after the ceasefire: There is a possibility of "deception" by the US and Israel.
Hassan Rouhani, the former head of state in the Islamic Republic, wrote in response to Donald Trump's threats: "Neither tonight, nor tomorrow, nor at any time, will Iranian civilization be extinguished, and any naive person who harbors the desire to silence Iran will suffer the same infamy that has already befallen anti-culture activists."
Following Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Javad Zarif's call for an end to the war, MP Hamid Rasaei called on the judiciary to "issue a judicial warrant" to arrest the former head of state and former foreign minister of the Islamic Republic.
Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani says preserving Iran and its regime requires the “immediate implementation of fundamental reforms in policymaking.” • • He added that policies must be changed to send reassuring signals for investment, entrepreneurship and greater global engagement in the country’s economy.
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani: Immediate reforms must be implemented to preserve the country and the regime.
Hassan Rouhani, the former head of state in the Islamic Republic, wrote in a message that one must be prepared to end the war "with honor" in the interests of the country and the people, and that coordinating the country's resources is essential to prevent aggression against the Persian Gulf islands and maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
0YES13NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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