Iran leader end of 2026?Ali Motahari
Open$837Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The burial of Martyr Ali Larijani begins next to the tomb of Martyr Motahari in the shrine of Hazrat Masoumeh (PBUH). @TasnimNews
3 Ayatollah Mazaheri's condolence message following the martyrdom of Dr. Larijani In a message, Ayatollah Mazaheri expressed condolences over the martyrdom of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the country to His Holiness Baqiyatollah Al-Azam (a.s.), the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, his esteemed family, and the noble nation of Iran, adding: "The bitter news of the martyrdom of the righteous and courageous servant, the wise and committed politician, the wise Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, His Excellency Dr. Ali Larijani, may God have mercy on him, in these seditious days when the dirty hands of global arrogance are stained with the innocent blood of thousands of compatriots and the widespread invasion of our beloved country, is a double grief and a great tragedy." The message continues: Martyr Larijani was a prominent figure and a wise thinker who was educated in the lap of the noble house of the Marja'iyyat and grew up in the shadow of the blessed family tree of the great thinker and Islamic scholar, the late Ayatollah Martyr Motahari. He devoted his entire blessed life to the advancement of Islam and Iran, and on this luminous path, he endured all the ups and downs, hardships, and unkindness with patience and insight. This statement states: Martyr Larijani never deviated from his path, goal, and sublime ideals, and ultimately, he sacrificed his pure life for these ideals, and at the hands of the evil villains of the time, he achieved the honor of martyrdom, and reached the divine meeting at the dawn of the holy month of Ramadan. News link tv.irna.ir @IRNA_1313
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Iran leader end of 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.