Russia Election: United Russia (ER) Vote Share?<40%

The number of abnormal votes for United Russia will exceed 14 million. United Russia's actual results remained roughly the same as in 2021, while the volume of fraudulent votes increased. While approximately 14 million votes were deemed anomalous in the last campaign, this year's figure will be higher, according to polling station data and analysis by electoral analysts. Details. Electoral expert Boris Ovchinnikov analyzed the first 20,000 processed ballots (approximately 23% of polling stations). According to Ovchinnikov's preliminary estimate, approximately 31% of offline votes may be anomalous. United Russia's share of such votes could be around half, and possibly as high as 55%. Turnout. Ovchinnikov estimates the actual offline turnout, excluding Moscow, the DEG, and the annexed territories, at less than 40%. According to his model, signs of falsification or other artificial inflated turnout are present at approximately 69% of polling stations outside Moscow. In Moscow, according to the analyst's preliminary assessment, offline turnout was not massively inflated, but the results may show signs of a large-scale redistribution of votes between candidates. Ovchinnikov believes that anomalies of this nature and scale haven't been seen in Moscow since 2011. United Russia's results. Election researcher Anatoly Karlin estimated United Russia's results, without falsifications, at approximately 35%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) at 25%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 15%, and New People at 15%. According to an analysis by Novaya Gazeta Evropa, without falsifications, United Russia’s result could have been around 34%. United Russia's actual result based on the paper vote, excluding the annexed territories, is around 35%, Ovchinnikov confirmed in correspondence with the Agency. "Taking into account the DEG, United Russia's actual result is higher," Ovchinnikov added. An analysis by electoral expert Petr Zhizhin indicates that turnout was 49.9%. Without falsifications, Zhizhin estimates United Russia's result would have been 41.9%. What does this mean? Given the increase in official turnout (59.32% versus 51.72%) and the ruling party's result (57.9% versus 49.82%), the number of frauds, with United Russia's actual result at 34-35%, should increase significantly in absolute terms. Quote: "The actual turnout and percentage of United Russia voters remained roughly at the 2021 level, give or take, while the official turnout and percentage of United Russia voters increased—therefore, the scale of the alleged fraud has apparently increased," Ovchinnikov wrote to the Agency. 2021. In the 2021 elections, the actual turnout, excluding allegedly falsified votes, was approximately 38%, according to analyst Sergei Shpilkin. According to his calculations, United Russia actually received 31–33% of the votes instead of the official 49.82%. About 14 million votes turned out to be abnormal then – half of those recorded by the ruling party. The final figures for voter fraud this year could be even higher. "There is no data yet from a large number of polling stations, especially from the sultanates," analyst Stanislav Andreychuk wrote to the Agency. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) reported that voter fraud may have been more significant this time around, not due to manipulation of the FEC, but rather due to falsifications and other irregularities during vote counting at polling stations, according to a report by analyst Dmitry Nesterov to the Agency. "I was under the impression that the federal FEC was not used for fraud," Nesterov wrote. United Russia's result was inflated not by the subtraction of votes from other parties, but by the fact that a falsified portion of the turnout was going in its favor, Ovchinnikov wrote to the Agency. Help SR. According to analysts, falsifications also helped improve A Just Russia's results. They had been steadily declining since 10% of the ballots had been processed, but after 97.33% of the ballots had been processed, the results of all parties except United Russia and SR stopped rising and began to decline, wrote electoral analyst Roman Udot. According to him, there is reason to believe that the SRs should not have entered the State Duma, and that the bulk of votes were taken from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People. Andreychuk also spoke about the sharp surge in votes for the SRs. Context: United Russia will receive a record representation in the State Duma—at least 348 seats (the previous record was 343 in 2016). Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter