Russia Election: United Russia (ER) Vote Share?45-50%

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NOBelarus State News Agency98%match100¢
United Russia received a constitutional majority in the State Duma - the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation has announced the election results. After 100% of the ballots were processed, United Russia won the party list vote, receiving 58.21%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) took second place with 13.47%, while the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) received 8.88%. The New People party followed with 7.82% and A Just Russia with 5.34%.
The number of abnormal votes for United Russia will exceed 14 million. United Russia's actual results remained roughly the same as in 2021, while the volume of fraudulent votes increased. While approximately 14 million votes were deemed anomalous in the last campaign, this year's figure will be higher, according to polling station data and analysis by electoral analysts. Details. Electoral expert Boris Ovchinnikov analyzed the first 20,000 processed ballots (approximately 23% of polling stations). According to Ovchinnikov's preliminary estimate, approximately 31% of offline votes may be anomalous. United Russia's share of such votes could be around half, and possibly as high as 55%. Turnout. Ovchinnikov estimates the actual offline turnout, excluding Moscow, the DEG, and the annexed territories, at less than 40%. According to his model, signs of falsification or other artificial inflated turnout are present at approximately 69% of polling stations outside Moscow. In Moscow, according to the analyst's preliminary assessment, offline turnout was not massively inflated, but the results may show signs of a large-scale redistribution of votes between candidates. Ovchinnikov believes that anomalies of this nature and scale haven't been seen in Moscow since 2011. United Russia's results. Election researcher Anatoly Karlin estimated United Russia's results, without falsifications, at approximately 35%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) at 25%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 15%, and New People at 15%. According to an analysis by Novaya Gazeta Evropa, without falsifications, United Russia’s result could have been around 34%. United Russia's actual result based on the paper vote, excluding the annexed territories, is around 35%, Ovchinnikov confirmed in correspondence with the Agency. "Taking into account the DEG, United Russia's actual result is higher," Ovchinnikov added. An analysis by electoral expert Petr Zhizhin indicates that turnout was 49.9%. Without falsifications, Zhizhin estimates United Russia's result would have been 41.9%. What does this mean? Given the increase in official turnout (59.32% versus 51.72%) and the ruling party's result (57.9% versus 49.82%), the number of frauds, with United Russia's actual result at 34-35%, should increase significantly in absolute terms. Quote: "The actual turnout and percentage of United Russia voters remained roughly at the 2021 level, give or take, while the official turnout and percentage of United Russia voters increased—therefore, the scale of the alleged fraud has apparently increased," Ovchinnikov wrote to the Agency. 2021. In the 2021 elections, the actual turnout, excluding allegedly falsified votes, was approximately 38%, according to analyst Sergei Shpilkin. According to his calculations, United Russia actually received 31–33% of the votes instead of the official 49.82%. About 14 million votes turned out to be abnormal then – half of those recorded by the ruling party. The final figures for voter fraud this year could be even higher. "There is no data yet from a large number of polling stations, especially from the sultanates," analyst Stanislav Andreychuk wrote to the Agency. The Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) reported that voter fraud may have been more significant this time around, not due to manipulation of the FEC, but rather due to falsifications and other irregularities during vote counting at polling stations, according to a report by analyst Dmitry Nesterov to the Agency. "I was under the impression that the federal FEC was not used for fraud," Nesterov wrote. United Russia's result was inflated not by the subtraction of votes from other parties, but by the fact that a falsified portion of the turnout was going in its favor, Ovchinnikov wrote to the Agency. Help SR. According to analysts, falsifications also helped improve A Just Russia's results. They had been steadily declining since 10% of the ballots had been processed, but after 97.33% of the ballots had been processed, the results of all parties except United Russia and SR stopped rising and began to decline, wrote electoral analyst Roman Udot. According to him, there is reason to believe that the SRs should not have entered the State Duma, and that the bulk of votes were taken from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People. Andreychuk also spoke about the sharp surge in votes for the SRs. Context: United Russia will receive a record representation in the State Duma—at least 348 seats (the previous record was 343 in 2016). Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
NOafp92%match99¢+1%
Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won a record supermajority in the Duma, authorities announce after a tightly controlled three-day election without parties critical of the Kremlin or the war in Ukraine •
NOVenezuela State-Backed TV98%match100¢
United Russia wins majority in parliamentary elections. The ruling party won 57.86% of the vote in the State Duma elections, consolidating its majority in the lower house of Parliament. How do you think this result will impact the international scene? #Russia #ParliamentaryElections #Sep21 Click the link to learn more:
NORussian state TV97%match100¢
United Russia is aiming for the largest faction in history, four parties overcome the 5% barrier: the Central Election Commission has summed up the preliminary results of the State Duma elections. Key points: United Russia's victory United Russia could create the largest Duma faction in its history - it is aiming for 355 of the 450 seats in the State Duma. The party receives 57.83% of the votes on party lists and wins in 208 of 255 single-mandate constituencies. Main parties The Communist Party of the Russian Federation receives 13.81% and wins in 5 single-mandate constituencies. This gives it 40 seats in the State Duma - significantly fewer than the 2021 election results. The LDPR received 8.98% and 2 seats in single-mandate constituencies. The party is running for 25 mandates, which will slightly increase its presence in the lower house of parliament. New People currently has 7.96%. The party did not achieve victory in a single single-mandate constituency, but can claim 20 seats (in the previous convocation of the Duma - 15). A Just Russia is gaining 4.96% and does not overcome the 5% threshold. For now, it can only count on 4 seats thanks to single-mandate constituencies. The party still has a chance of overcoming the barrier, stated the head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova. Other results The remaining five parties received a total of 5.07% of the vote. The best result was shown by the Pensioners' Party - 2%. The only deputy mandate among these parties will be received by Rodina - its leader Alexei Zhuravlev wins in his single-mandate constituency. Another four seats in the State Duma are won by self-nominated candidates. Record turnout Turnout in the Duma elections reached 59.32% - this is the best result since 2011. In remote electronic voting, turnout was 90.88%. Minimum violations The election campaign, despite all the difficulties, was "as clean and calm as possible," said Ella Pamfilova. According to her, the following had to be invalidated Only 36,850 ballots were recognized in 12 regions. Only two cases of ballot stuffing were recorded. To stay up to date with the most important news: Website | MAX | Telegram
NORussian Media98%match100¢
Voter turnout in the ninth State Duma elections was 59.32%, according to Ella Pamfilova, head of the Central Election Commission. United Russia received 57.83% of the vote and is leading in 208 single-mandate constituencies—preliminary estimates suggest the party will hold 355 of the 450 seats. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) has 40 mandates, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) 25, and New People 20. According to Pamfilova, A Just Russia still has a chance to overcome the 5% barrier. The final tally of election results will be held on September 25. BAZA on Telegram BAZA on MAX
NORussian Media97%match100¢
The turnout in the State Duma elections was 59.32%, which is higher than in previous years. In 2021, the Central Election Commission counted 51.72%, in 2016 - 47.88%. According to the parties, at the time of processing 95% of the protocols, the situation is as follows: United Russia received 53.83% of the vote, the party won in 208 single-mandate constituencies, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 13.81% and won in 5 single-mandate constituencies, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia received 8.98% of the vote, winning in 2 single-mandate constituencies, and New People received 7.96% of the vote. Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX [in reply to: The vote count in the State Duma elections is nearing completion — the Central Election Commission has processed 90.43% of the protocols. Preliminary results: — United Russia — 57.86% — Communist Party of the Russian Federation — 13.84% — Liberal Democratic Party of Russia — 8.90% — New People — 7.94% — A Just Russia — 4.95% Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX]
NONews97%match100¢
United Russia Gains 57.83% of the Vote in the State Duma Elections, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 13.81%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia - 8.93%, New People - 7.97%, and Just Russia - 4.96% After Processing 93.06% of the Protocols - the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation
NOIran Semi-Official Mehr98%match99¢+1%
Preliminary results of the Russian parliamentary elections; United Russia party is in the lead According to the preliminary results announced by the Russian Central Election Commission, the ruling United Russia party is in the lead in the country's parliamentary elections with 57.26 percent of the vote, followed by the Communist Party with 13.84 percent. mehrnews.com @Mehrnews
NORussian Media97%match99¢+1%
The Central Electoral Commission of Russia presented the results after processing 45.08% of the protocols of the precinct election commissions in the elections of deputies to the ninth State Duma. According to the broadcast on the Central Election Commission website, the votes were distributed as follows: United Russia — 57.67%; Communist Party of the Russian Federation — 13.81%; Liberal Democratic Party of Russia — 8.88%; New People — 7.87%; A Just Russia — 5.18%; Pensioners' Party — 2.16%; The Greens — 1.02%; Communists of Russia — 0.89%; Rodina — 0.68%; Direct Democracy Party — 0.32%. RBC app for iOS and Android RBC Channel in "Max"
NORussian news outlet Agentstvo97%match99¢+1%
Putin achieved the result he needed in the State Duma elections to demonstrate support for the war. According to preliminary State Duma election results, United Russia is achieving a higher result than five years ago, and likely a constitutional majority. Turnout is also higher than five years ago. This appears to be a clear demonstration of Vladimir Putin's call to support the war through the State Duma elections being realized. Details. After processing almost 33% of the votes, the party received 56.97% of the vote, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) 13.95%, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 9.26%, New People 8.06%, and A Just Russia 5.22%. In 2021, United Russia had 49.82% (+7.15 pp), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation had 18.93% (-4.98 pp), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia had 7.55% (+1.71 pp), New People had 5.32% (+2.74 pp), and A Just Russia had 7.46% (-2.24 pp). Preliminary results allow United Russia to expect to maintain its constitutional majority. With about a quarter of the ballots processed, the party's candidates were leading in 181 single-mandate constituencies, and the list results gave it approximately 125 more seats, according to Interfax calculations. Furthermore, United Russia will receive some mandates through the redistribution of votes from parties that failed to clear the 5% threshold. In the current convocation, United Russia had 324 mandates. The initial official results were significantly higher than those of pro-government exit polls. VTsIOM estimated United Russia's result at 49.4%, while INSOMAR estimated it at 52.8%. However, the sociologists did not conduct surveys in some border and annexed regions, some North Caucasus republics, and remote northern territories, as well as among military personnel and those who voted through the Department of Electoral Community (DEG). Therefore, both services warned in advance that United Russia's final result could be higher, Kommersant reports. Turnout also increased. By the close of polling stations, it was 56.66%, compared to 51.72% in 2021—an increase of nearly five percentage points. Kommersant notes that after accounting for ballots that had not yet been counted, the final turnout could exceed 60%. This would make it one of the highest in the Duma elections. How this result was achieved. Electoral expert Stanislav Andreychuk called these elections "very tough": "Instead of celebrations, pranks, and pies—discipline and order." According to him, on Friday, when the majority of the controlled electorate voted, voters were forced to come to the polls, and on Sunday, when the share of the protest electorate increased, obstacles to voting arose. The most notable incident occurred in Moscow: due to a glitch in the electronic voter list system at some polling stations, voters waited up to several hours to receive their paper ballots. Dmitry Reut, deputy chairman of the Moscow City Electoral Commission, attributed the glitch to external cyberattacks. Another trend of this campaign is the unprecedented pressure on observers, who were removed en masse from polling stations under various pretexts. By the morning of the second day, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation reported at least 1,175 such cases. Electoral expert Roman Udot called the events a "collapse of the electoral system," which manifested itself across virtually the entire country, but in different forms. For example, in the Far East and Siberia, observers recorded an unusually high number of reports of safes and ballot packages being broken into, seals being replaced, and signature and stamp problems. Why does the Kremlin care about this result? On the eve of the vote, Vladimir Putin himself effectively suggested that the elections be seen as a demonstration of public support for the army. He stated that Russians' vote should "once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our soldiers," and called participation in the vote a contribution to strengthening the country. Now "the State Duma will be seriously strengthened by veterans," said one of the leaders of the federal list of United Russia, war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny, on air on Rossiya 1 this evening. The next federal elections in Russia will be held in March 2030. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter

Where does the news lean?

0YES48NO31neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

How did this market resolve?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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