Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

OpenVol$363KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 23% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES23¢
NO78¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOnbcnews.com92%match77¢
Live: ‘Smart guy’: Trump says he stands by Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
NOnbcnews.com92%match77¢
‘Smart guy’: Trump says he stands by Pete Hegseth as defense secretary
NOAsharq93%match78¢-1%
Trump: I am very pleased with the performance of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
NOWalter Bloomberg95%match75¢+3%
TRUMP REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR HEGSETH • • President Trump dismissed reports questioning Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, calling them "completely false" and reaffirming his full confidence. • • He praised Hegseth's leadership, citing stronger military recruitment, the removal of DEI initiatives, and recent U.S. operations involving Venezuela and Iran as successes. • • Trump also accused The Washington Post of spreading false reports and described its coverage as "treasonous."
NOnytimes.com99%match64¢+20%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is speaking at a congressional hearing in Washington and was asked about the Trump administration’s plans to withdraw U.S.
NOReuters Reporter99%match56¢+38%
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attends a House Armed Services Committee hearing on the Department of Defense's FY27 budget request on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 29, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Where does the news lean?

5YES9NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 75% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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