Russia Election: United Russia (ER) Vote Share?55-60%
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$33Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
United Russia received a constitutional majority in the State Duma - the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation has announced the election results. After 100% of the ballots were processed, United Russia won the party list vote, receiving 58.21%. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) took second place with 13.47%, while the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) received 8.88%. The New People party followed with 7.82% and A Just Russia with 5.34%.
YESNews94%match100¢
URGENT: United Russia surpassed the 2021 election results and received about 58% of the vote - Medvedev
YESNews94%match100¢
United Russia managed to surpass the results of the 2021 elections, the party received about 58% of the votes - Medvedev
Voter turnout in the ninth State Duma elections was 59.32%, according to Ella Pamfilova, head of the Central Election Commission. United Russia received 57.83% of the vote and is leading in 208 single-mandate constituencies—preliminary estimates suggest the party will hold 355 of the 450 seats. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) has 40 mandates, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) 25, and New People 20. According to Pamfilova, A Just Russia still has a chance to overcome the 5% barrier. The final tally of election results will be held on September 25. BAZA on Telegram
BAZA on MAX
The turnout in the State Duma elections was 59.32%, which is higher than in previous years. In 2021, the Central Election Commission counted 51.72%, in 2016 - 47.88%. According to the parties, at the time of processing 95% of the protocols, the situation is as follows: United Russia received 53.83% of the vote, the party won in 208 single-mandate constituencies, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation received 13.81% and won in 5 single-mandate constituencies, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia received 8.98% of the vote, winning in 2 single-mandate constituencies, and New People received 7.96% of the vote. Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX [in reply to: The vote count in the State Duma elections is nearing completion — the Central Election Commission has processed 90.43% of the protocols. Preliminary results:
— United Russia — 57.86%
— Communist Party of the Russian Federation — 13.84%
— Liberal Democratic Party of Russia — 8.90%
— New People — 7.94%
— A Just Russia — 4.95% Photos and videos not loading? Read us in MAX]
Where does the news lean?
71YES3NO22neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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