Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?Thom Tillis
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$48Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
[#Federal Reserve Chairman Says He Won't Be Trump's Puppet#, #Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's Ambiguous Stance on Rate Cuts and Balance Sheet Reduction#, Fed Chair-designate Warsh Responds to Controversy] On the 21st Eastern Time, US President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh participated in a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, responding to hot topics that have attracted much attention in the market. Regarding the issues most concerning to the market—whether he would comply with US President Trump's wishes for a significant interest rate cut and how to reduce the balance sheet—Wash gave a vague response, but emphasized that he would ensure the Fed's independence and would not be Trump's "puppet." However, his emphasis on independence seems to be paving the way for his proposed future "reform of the Fed." Furthermore, Republican Senator Thom Tillis remains committed to not supporting Warsh's nomination unless the Trump administration drops the criminal charges against current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Warsh's disclosures of his personal assets have also been questioned again. This adds further uncertainty to his chances of securing the nomination. [Link to webpage]
Ye ole: • • Kick it to a highly respected, blue-ribbon committee (congressional version) • • Key Republican senators appear to be coalescing around a plan that could end Sen. Thom Tillis’ blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve. • • Tillis and Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) are floating a special Congressional committee to examine construction projects under the Banking panel’s jurisdiction that could replace a Justice Department probe into whether current Fed Chair Jerome Powell lied about cost overruns related to renovations of the central bank’s headquarters. Tillis has vowed to block Warsh’s nomination until the DOJ investigation is dropped.
Tough beat for Team Trump • • Sen Thom Tillis (R-NC), a pivotal vote in Banking Committee, says he’s still a NO on confirming Federal Reserve Board chair nominee Kevin Warsh, until Administration shuts down criminal probe of Jerome Powell
Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina is up next with some questions. He is playing a pivotal role in holding up Warsh’s nomination despite expressing his support for him to eventually become chair. Tillis has vowed to block any Fed nomination until the Justice Department drops its legal threats into Powell, which it launched over renovations at the central bank’s headquarters in Washington
KEVIN WARSH'S FED CHAIR CONFIRMATION HEARING STARTS AT 10 AM ET. • • WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • PREDICTION MARKETS PUT ONLY A 33% CHANCE THAT KEVIN WARSH IS CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR BY MAY 15, WHEN JEROME POWELL’S TERM ENDS, ACCORDING TO POLYMARKET AND KALSHI. • • THE DELAY RISK STEMS FROM OPPOSITION BY SENATOR THOM TILLIS, WHO IS BLOCKING NOMINATIONS PENDING A JUSTICE DEPARTMENT PROBE INTO POWELL. • • MARKETS STILL EXPECT EVENTUAL APPROVAL, WITH ODDS RISING TO 89% BY JULY. • - *WALTER BLOOMBERG ...
WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • PREDICTION MARKETS PUT ONLY A 33% CHANCE THAT KEVIN WARSH IS CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR BY MAY 15, WHEN JEROME POWELL’S TERM ENDS, ACCORDING TO POLYMARKET AND KALSHI. • • THE DELAY RISK STEMS FROM OPPOSITION BY SENATOR THOM TILLIS, WHO IS BLOCKING NOMINATIONS PENDING A JUSTICE DEPARTMENT PROBE INTO POWELL. • • MARKETS STILL EXPECT EVENTUAL APPROVAL, WITH ODDS RISING TO 89% BY JULY. • ...
WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • Prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. • • The delay risk stems from opposition by Senator Thom Tillis, who is blocking nominations pending a Justice Department probe into Powell. • • Markets still expect eventual approval, with odds rising to 89% by July. •
Thune says "it would be better" if the Justice Department's investigation of the Fed "winds down," pointing to Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition to advancing Kevin Warsh's nomination until the investigation is ended or real evidence of criminal conduct is revealed.
Trump on Fox Business on Kevin Warsh nomination to lead the Fed and if he can be confirmed: We're going to have to find out. He might not, but • but that's why Thom Tillis is no longer a senator…He quit. Well, he's on his way out. Well, no, he quit. But he quit, and I think he doesn't want the legacy of stopping a great person who could be great. I think Kevin Warsh is going to be great, he doesn' want the legacy of having an incompetent guy stay there for longer than is necessary. I know Thom Tillis. He's a good man. I don't think he's going to hurt. I know he said what he said, and maybe it's true, in which case I'll have to live with it. But not as chairman. This guy is a bad chairman, really bad chairman. And I was surprised when Biden extended him
New — GOP Sen. Thom Tillis told me he still plans to block Trump's pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve until DOJ drops its criminal probe into Powell. Comes as Warsh hearing is set for next week. • If he votes no, nomination would deadlock in committee if Dems vote NO
NOcnbc99%match35¢-100%
Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation
NONews99%match35¢-100%
Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation
NOBloomberg Reporter99%match35¢-100%
Sen. Tillis says he’s OK with Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s nomination process starting, Punchbowl reports. Though, Tillis notes that Warsh’s nomination may remain in committee “for some period of time,” as he’s vowed to block the nomination.
NOzerohedge98%match14¢-100%
*TILLIS WON'T BACK CONFIRMATION WITHOUT FED PROBE RESOLVED: CBS
NOFirst Squawk99%match14¢-100%
TILLIS WON'T BACK CONFIRMATION WITHOUT FED PROBE RESOLVED - CBS
NOAcyn99%match14¢-100%
O'Keefe: When the treasury secretary said there is a deal to at least hold confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh to serve as next chair—is he misguided on that? Tillis: That's not a deal. That's a decision made unilaterally. The decision I get to make is whether or not I allow a…
YES*Walter Bloomberg99%match63¢+59%
TILLIS: WOULD SUPPORT WARSH AFTER POWELL PROBE IS SETTLED [Quoting @DeItaone]
> REPUBLICAN SEN. THOM TILLIS: WARSH IS A GREAT PICK FOR THE FED
YESFirst Squawk99%match63¢+59%
TILLIS: WARSH IS A GREAT PICK FOR THE FED
YES*Walter Bloomberg99%match63¢+59%
REPUBLICAN SEN. THOM TILLIS: WARSH IS A GREAT PICK FOR THE FED
Where does the news lean?
6YES14NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
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