Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

ResolvedOutcomes7as of

This hub tracks 7 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Elizabeth Warrenms.now99%match98¢+2%
Elizabeth Warren seeks information on finances of Trump’s Fed nominee
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass ) reacts to this news, saying: “Either the Republican majority is fooled easily or they are hoping to fool the American people.“
Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): "This is just an attempt to clear the path for Senate Republicans to install Pres Trump’s sockpuppet Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Let’s be clear what the Justice Dept announced: they threatened to restart the bogus criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell at any time"
Elizabeth Warrennytimes.com99%match95¢+5%
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said that the decision by the Trump administration to drop its investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell was not enough. In a statement, Warren seized on a comment from Jeannine Pirro, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, who had said that the government could restart the investigation into Powell if conditions warranted. “Anyone who believes Donald Trump’s corrupt scheme to take over the Fed is over is fooling themselves,” said Warren, who renewed her demand that the Senate refrain from proceeding with the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next chair of the central bank.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: "Anyone who believes Donald Trump's corrupt scheme to take over the Fed is over is fooling themselves. The Senate should not proceed with the nomination of Kevin Warsh."
[#Federal Reserve Chairman Says He Won't Be Trump's Puppet#, #Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's Ambiguous Stance on Rate Cuts and Balance Sheet Reduction#, Fed Chair-designate Warsh Responds to Controversy] On the 21st Eastern Time, US President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh participated in a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, responding to hot topics that have attracted much attention in the market. Regarding the issues most concerning to the market—whether he would comply with US President Trump's wishes for a significant interest rate cut and how to reduce the balance sheet—Wash gave a vague response, but emphasized that he would ensure the Fed's independence and would not be Trump's "puppet." However, his emphasis on independence seems to be paving the way for his proposed future "reform of the Fed." Furthermore, Republican Senator Thom Tillis remains committed to not supporting Warsh's nomination unless the Trump administration drops the criminal charges against current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Warsh's disclosures of his personal assets have also been questioned again. This adds further uncertainty to his chances of securing the nomination. [Link to webpage]
Elizabeth Warrenchinesewsj99%match94¢+6%
#Video: During a congressional hearing, facing Senator Elizabeth Warren's questioning about independence, Trump's Federal Reserve Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, stated that one point of contention between him and President Trump lies in "casting criteria." Trump had previously called Warsh a "perfect casting choice."
Coming up tonight at 9 p.m. ET, Sen. Elizabeth Warren will join me after she questioned President Trump's Fed nominee Kevin Warsh.
Thom TillisPolitico Reporter99%match83¢+20%
Ye ole: • • Kick it to a highly respected, blue-ribbon committee (congressional version) • • Key Republican senators appear to be coalescing around a plan that could end Sen. Thom Tillis’ blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to chair the Federal Reserve. • • Tillis and Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) are floating a special Congressional committee to examine construction projects under the Banking panel’s jurisdiction that could replace a Justice Department probe into whether current Fed Chair Jerome Powell lied about cost overruns related to renovations of the central bank’s headquarters. Tillis has vowed to block Warsh’s nomination until the DOJ investigation is dropped.
Thom TillisCBS Reporter99%match18¢-100%
Tough beat for Team Trump • • Sen Thom Tillis (R-NC), a pivotal vote in Banking Committee, says he’s still a NO on confirming Federal Reserve Board chair nominee Kevin Warsh, until Administration shuts down criminal probe of Jerome Powell
Elizabeth Warrenfoxbusiness99%match95¢+5%
NEW: Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren and Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh clash during his confirmation hearing, as she accuses him of not being willing to divest his assets upon taking on the role as head of the central bank. • • "Will you at least disclose how you plan to disclose and divest these secret assets?" • • "I've agreed to divest all of those assets... before I take the oath of office." • • Warsh later insisted he is "happy to do" any divestiture necessary so he can focus on fixing the Fed and "reforming an institution that has lost its way."
SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN: ARE YOU REFUSING TO TELL US IF YOU HAVE INVESTMENTS IN VEHICLES SET UP BY JEFFREY EPSTEIN? • • FED CHAIR NOMINEE KEVIN WARSH: THOSE ASSETS WILL BE SOLD IF I'M CONFIRMED AND BEFORE I TAKE OFFICE. ...
Unpacking Elizabeth Warren's opening statement and a very heated exchange with Kevin Warsh: • • Democrats are laying out a line of critique that brands Warsh as a political opportunist whose views track whether the chairmanship of the Fed is open
"A puppet at the head of the Fed would allow President Trump to enrich himself" Democratic U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has expressed concerns about Kevin Warsh, a close ally of Donald Trump and a candidate for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. #BFM2
Thom Tillisnytimes.com99%match18¢-100%
Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina is up next with some questions. He is playing a pivotal role in holding up Warsh’s nomination despite expressing his support for him to eventually become chair. Tillis has vowed to block any Fed nomination until the Justice Department drops its legal threats into Powell, which it launched over renovations at the central bank’s headquarters in Washington
Sen. Elizabeth Warren asks Trump Fed pick Kevin Warsh if he has investments tied to the Trump family. He won't answer directly.
Thom Tillismarketnews_feed99%match18¢-100%
KEVIN WARSH'S FED CHAIR CONFIRMATION HEARING STARTS AT 10 AM ET. • • WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • PREDICTION MARKETS PUT ONLY A 33% CHANCE THAT KEVIN WARSH IS CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR BY MAY 15, WHEN JEROME POWELL’S TERM ENDS, ACCORDING TO POLYMARKET AND KALSHI. • • THE DELAY RISK STEMS FROM OPPOSITION BY SENATOR THOM TILLIS, WHO IS BLOCKING NOMINATIONS PENDING A JUSTICE DEPARTMENT PROBE INTO POWELL. • • MARKETS STILL EXPECT EVENTUAL APPROVAL, WITH ODDS RISING TO 89% BY JULY. • - *WALTER BLOOMBERG ...
Thom Tillismarketnews_feed99%match82¢+22%
WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • PREDICTION MARKETS PUT ONLY A 33% CHANCE THAT KEVIN WARSH IS CONFIRMED AS FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR BY MAY 15, WHEN JEROME POWELL’S TERM ENDS, ACCORDING TO POLYMARKET AND KALSHI. • • THE DELAY RISK STEMS FROM OPPOSITION BY SENATOR THOM TILLIS, WHO IS BLOCKING NOMINATIONS PENDING A JUSTICE DEPARTMENT PROBE INTO POWELL. • • MARKETS STILL EXPECT EVENTUAL APPROVAL, WITH ODDS RISING TO 89% BY JULY. • ...
Thom TillisWalter Bloomberg99%match18¢-100%
WARSH CONFIRMATION SEEN AS DELAYED • • Prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. • • The delay risk stems from opposition by Senator Thom Tillis, who is blocking nominations pending a Justice Department probe into Powell. • • Markets still expect eventual approval, with odds rising to 89% by July. •
Elizabeth Warrennytimes.com99%match95¢+5%
One of the issues that Senate Democrats plan to raise today: Kevin Warsh’s significant wealth, after he promised in recent ethics filings to divest more than $100 million in assets. Ahead of the hearing, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, issued a report that faulted Warsh for failing to disclose some of the details of his investments.
Elizabeth Warrenpiqnewswire99%match95¢+5%
U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh's financial disclosures have significant gaps that violate Senate ethics rules. • • More Here →
Thom TillisThe Hill Reporter98%match12¢-100%
Thune says "it would be better" if the Justice Department's investigation of the Fed "winds down," pointing to Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition to advancing Kevin Warsh's nomination until the investigation is ended or real evidence of criminal conduct is revealed.
Thom TillisFox Reporter99%match88¢+14%
Trump on Fox Business on Kevin Warsh nomination to lead the Fed and if he can be confirmed: We're going to have to find out. He might not, but • but that's why Thom Tillis is no longer a senator…He quit. Well, he's on his way out. Well, no, he quit. But he quit, and I think he doesn't want the legacy of stopping a great person who could be great. I think Kevin Warsh is going to be great, he doesn' want the legacy of having an incompetent guy stay there for longer than is necessary. I know Thom Tillis. He's a good man. I don't think he's going to hurt. I know he said what he said, and maybe it's true, in which case I'll have to live with it. But not as chairman. This guy is a bad chairman, really bad chairman. And I was surprised when Biden extended him
Thom TillisCNN Reporter99%match12¢-100%
New — GOP Sen. Thom Tillis told me he still plans to block Trump's pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve until DOJ drops its criminal probe into Powell. Comes as Warsh hearing is set for next week. • If he votes no, nomination would deadlock in committee if Dems vote NO
Thom Tilliscnbc99%match35¢-100%
Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation
Thom TillisNews99%match35¢-100%
Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation
Thom TillisBloomberg Reporter99%match35¢-100%
Sen. Tillis says he’s OK with Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s nomination process starting, Punchbowl reports. Though, Tillis notes that Warsh’s nomination may remain in committee “for some period of time,” as he’s vowed to block the nomination.
Elizabeth WarrenBenzinga98%match84¢+19%
Elizabeth Warren Says Fed, Treasury Shouldn't 'Use Taxpayer Dollars To Bail Out Crypto Billionaires'
Elizabeth WarrenBloomberg99%match82¢+22%
Elizabeth Warren demands that Federal Reserve nominees commit to protect independent research
Thom Tilliszerohedge98%match14¢-100%
*TILLIS WON'T BACK CONFIRMATION WITHOUT FED PROBE RESOLVED: CBS

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related events