US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 100% on Sep 22, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 87.5¢ to 99.6¢ (+12.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from CNN Reporter. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match87.5¢
+5m87¢
+30m94¢
+1h99.6¢
1h move+12.1 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 22, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 90.5¢ → 99.7¢+9.2 ptsafter a signal from ABC Reporter

What moved the odds?

YesCNN Reporter94%match
Trump says US and Iranian officials met today for 3 hours, calling it productive and saying they’ll meet again in the near future, their first meeting since June. Earlier Trump warned that he had a decision to make over where or not to annihilate Iran, or to make a deal.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$357K

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Next round of US-Iran peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.