US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 100% on Sep 22, 2026
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 87.5¢ to 99.6¢ (+12.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from CNN Reporter.
How did the odds move?
87.5¢
87¢
94¢
99.6¢
+12.1 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
YesCNN Reporter94%match
Trump says US and Iranian officials met today for 3 hours, calling it productive and saying they’ll meet again in the near future, their first meeting since June. Earlier Trump warned that he had a decision to make over where or not to annihilate Iran, or to make a deal.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 98% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES98¢
NO2¢
$335K
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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Next round of US-Iran peace talks — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.