Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Donald Brodie the favorite at 30% across 28 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Ryan Salame24%
Matt Gaetz21%
Roger Stone21%
Steve Bannon14%
Young Thug11%
Daniel Penny11%
Diddy4%
Himself3%
Do Kwon3%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Diddy won't be getting out of prison as soon as he thought he would as his release gets delayed by nearly a month. • • Sean "Diddy" Combs is now expected to be released from federal prison on Feb. 20, 2028 — nearly a month later than his previous release date, according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons. • • This shift marks the latest change to his release schedule since he began serving his sentence. • • The update comes after multiple reports said Combs was sent to solitary confinement following a reported fight with another inmate.
Senate Unanimously Votes That Sam Bankman-Fried Should Never Get A Pardon
US Senate Unanimously Opposes Sam Bankman-Fried Pardon
U.S. Senate Unanimously Opposes Clemency for FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried • • The U.S. Senate unanimously approved a nonbinding resolution stating that FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried should not receive a presidential pardon, sentence commutation or any other form of federal clemency “under any circumstances.” The measure passed by unanimous consent without objection. Bankman-Fried founded FTX, once one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges before its 2022 collapse, and is serving a 25-year sentence after being convicted on seven fraud and conspiracy charges. • • The resolution follows his efforts to seek clemency and comes after President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
The Senate UC’d a resolution today saying Sam Bankman-Fried shouldn’t receive a presidential pardon or commutation
The Senate, unanimously, to President Trump: don’t pardon Sam Bankman-Fried
Gold Bar Bob Fallout (and comparison) - After Bob Menendez Got 11 Years Sentence Nadine Delay Denied Amid Use of Health Info - Inner City Press story: Analysis on X for Subscribers and Substack here:
Trump Likely To Pardon Pollution Violators As He Privately Weighs Clemency For Diddy, Other High-Profile Figures - @CBSNews Sources •
GOLD BAR BOB FALLOUT: After Bob Menendez Got 11 Years Sentence, Now Nadine's Bid for a 4 Month Delay in Surrender to Prison Questioned [Judge Stein is not happy with Nadine, or at least her lawyer ] - Inner City Press story:
Hunter Biden concedes privilege behind dad’s pardon reversal as he jabs Trump admin
Diddy's lawyers to appeal disgraced rap mogul's conviction
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs’ lawyers to urge appeals court to overturn conviction, sentence
Diddy back in court to appeal criminal conviction
Was Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs making amateur porn? Lawyers argue yes in appealing conviction on prostitution-related charges
The Supreme Court *will not* review the Tiger King's murder-for-hire conviction. Joseph Allen Maldonado-Passage, also know as Joe Exotic of Netflix fame, had argued witness recantations related to his plot to kill Carole Baskin required at least an evidentiary hearing. #SCOTUS
CNN EXCLUSIVE: The parents of Sam Bankman-Fried, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, break their silence in a sit down with @smerconish on why they're challenging the fraud conviction that put their son behind bars. • • Tune in tomorrow at 9aET & 1pET on @CNN, CNN apps and
Walkinshaw: Why has Trump refused to rule out the pardon, the clemency that Ghislaine Maxwell is campaigning for? We held a deposition in this committee with Maxwell. She used that deposition as an opportunity to campaign for a pardon. Chairman Comer then walked out before many…
This criminal enterprise - which spawned the likes of Sam Bankman Fried and Caroline Ellison - should be barred from ever trading anything again [Quoting @zerohedge]
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RT @Benzinga: Sam Bankman-Fried Alleges Judge Uses 'Trump Playbook' On Him To Block Evidence.
Sam Bankman-Fried Alleges Judge Uses 'Trump Playbook' On Him To Block Evidence.
Steve Bannon, a former White House adviser to President Trump, discussed opposition strategies with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein against Pope Francis, with Bannon saying he hoped to "take down" the pontiff, according to newly released files from the US Department of…
Steve Bannon, a former White House adviser to US President Donald Trump, discussed opposition strategies with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein against Pope Francis, with Bannon saying he hoped to “take down” the pontiff, according to newly released files from the US…
Is anyone ever gonna explain to us why Maxwell got moved to a fancy jail?
[Replying to @unusual_whales] Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Polymarket estimates there is a 10% chance. See more: > BREAKING: Ghislaine Maxwell says she will clear Trump's name of any wrongdoing, as it pertains to Epstein, if Trump grants her clemency, per CNN
Q: Ghislaine Maxwell, Is the president going to rule out a pardon for her? WH PRESS SEC.: It's not a priority. He's focused on many of the issue that the American people are dealing with.
Reporter: Is the president going to rule out a pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell? Leavitt: This is not something I've discussed with the president recently because, frankly, it's not a priority.
‘Thank goodness you’re stopping him, everyone has known he’s been doing this,’ Trump is reported to have told police in 2006.
Ghislaine Maxwell, who is in prison for sex trafficking crimes linked to Jeffrey Epstein, says she will not testify before the U.S. Congress unless she is pardoned or released early. Trial lawyer John Fishwick Jr. @JohnFishwick13 weighs in. #Heat #Trump #Epstein #Maxwell
Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein’s convicted associate and former girlfriend, invoked her Fifth Amendment right and refused to testify before a US congressional committee, with her lawyers saying she would only answer questions if granted clemency.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.