How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Open10as of
Market pricing makes 400-500k the favorite at 61% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Immigrant apprehensions in the U.S. reached their highest point in July since Trump's return: ICE arrested 49,571 people, 15% more than in June. The gap with the goal of one million per year remains wide. #teleSUR #USA #Immigration #ICE
Trump expands deportation map outside America: Agreements with 35 countries to receive deportees, even non-citizens, and transfer more than 23,000 people to 26 countries under new arrangements.
Trump expands deportation map outside America: Agreements with 35 countries to receive deportees, even non-citizens, and transfer more than 23,000 people to 26 countries under new arrangements.
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
Second Trump Admin has so far removed over 3M illegal aliens • • "Mullin also asserted that 70% of daily arrests involved targets with felony convictions or pending felony charges." • •
Second Trump Admin has so far removed over 3M illegal aliens • • "Mullin also asserted that 70% of daily arrests involved targets with felony convictions or pending felony charges." • •
Second Trump Admin has so far removed over 3M illegal aliens • • "Mullin also asserted that 70% of daily arrests involved targets with felony convictions or pending felony charges." • •
Second Trump Admin has so far removed over 3M illegal aliens • • "Mullin also asserted that 70% of daily arrests involved targets with felony convictions or pending felony charges." • •
Jose Contreras felt safe from deportation under a program launched years ago under Barack Obama, but the Trump administration expelled him anyway.
Immigrants are giving up their claims in immigration court and voluntarily leaving the U.S. in exponentially higher numbers under the Trump administration, according to a new report based on federal data.
What is this event about?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.