How many people will Trump deport in 2026?900k-1m
Open$7Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOAcyn98%match94¢+5%
Reporter: Would you would you support mass deportations of people who are otherwise law-abiding? Trump: We’re focusing on the criminals, the killers… but ultimately, they all broke the law…. Ultimately, yeah, it’s exactly as I said during the campaign.
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match94¢+5%
The Trump administration is attempting to eliminate most opportunities for immigrants with deportation orders to appeal cases, the government’s latest step to strip immigrants of due process rights so they can be deported faster.
Where does the news lean?
2YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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