How many people will Trump deport in 2026?500-600k
Open$7Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
YESzerohedge99%match7¢+100%
Trump has deported 540,000 people, fewer than in either of Biden's last 2 years. But Biden deportations focused on the border, now mainly shut. Trump has targeted those in the country and has removed 230,000 of them, more than Biden in 4 years. @albertsun
Where does the news lean?
3YES11NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for How many people will Trump deport in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.