How many people will Trump deport in 2026?700-800k
Open$42Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NEW: DHS Secretary Mullin says ICE is averaging 4,200 deportations per day over the last week. • • Hypothetically, if that pace were maintained for a full year, it would mean 1.5 million deportations in a year.
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
These people have served their criminal sentences but were released — sometimes years, and even decades ago — after ICE was unable to deport them. • • The Trump administation has been re-detaining them and claiming to have restarted or reinvigorated deportation efforts, but courts have routinely found this to be predicated on "hope" rather than concrete progress.
Fewer non-criminal ICE arrests drives decline in detention population
Where does the news lean?
7YES15NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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