How many people will Trump deport in 2026?300-400k

OpenVol$15KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 16% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES16¢
NO85¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOFox Reporter96%match80¢+5%
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
NOwhitehouse99%match53¢+58%
Immigrants are giving up their claims in immigration court and voluntarily leaving the U.S. in exponentially higher numbers under the Trump administration, according to a new report based on federal data.
NOReuters99%match53¢+58%
Rpt- Trump Moves to Accelerate Deportations of Migrant Children in US Custody-CNN
NORussian Media99%match53¢+58%
Donald Trump supported renaming ICE to NICE. A Trump supporter proposed adding the word "national" to the name of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. She wrote to the X network: "I want Trump to change ICE to NICE (National Immigration and Customs Enforcement) so the media can write about the nice agents all day long." Thus, the abbreviation of the agency ICE (which translates as "ice" in Russian) will change to NICE (which translates as "pleasant, polite"). Donald Trump posted a follower's appeal on his social network, Truth Social, and captioned it: "Great idea! Must do." According to data published in mid-April, in fiscal year 2025—the 12 months from October 2024 to September 2025—ICE deported more than 442,000 people. This is 171,000 more than in the previous fiscal year. Currently, ICE holds nearly 60,000 migrants in custody. Since the beginning of 2026, 17 migrants have died in ICE detention centers or jails, and 33 in all of 2025. Subscribe to Kommersant on Telegram | MAX | Leave boosts
NOFox Reporter98%match63¢+33%
NEW: ICE Director Todd Lyons tells me ICE has now arrested 453,618 criminal aliens w/ convictions or pending criminal charges under Trump 2.0. • • I also asked him for his reaction to illegal aliens being arrested for 75% of the murders in sanctuary Fairfax County, VA this year, & what his message is to VA Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who ended all state cooperation with ICE upon taking office. • • Lyons: “I would just ask the Governor to read the headlines, see what’s going on in [her] state. It’s so frustrating because we see innocent people getting murdered all the time and it’s totally preventable. And if elected officials like the governor want to give me a call and work with us, that’s what we want."
YESReuters98%match25¢-36%
US appeals court lets Trump continue ending deportation protections
NOAcyn98%match77¢+9%
Reporter: Would you would you support mass deportations of people who are otherwise law-abiding? Trump: We’re focusing on the criminals, the killers… but ultimately, they all broke the law…. Ultimately, yeah, it’s exactly as I said during the campaign.
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match23¢-30%
The Trump administration is attempting to eliminate most opportunities for immigrants with deportation orders to appeal cases, the government’s latest step to strip immigrants of due process rights so they can be deported faster.
NOzerohedge99%match76¢+11%
Trump has deported 540,000 people, fewer than in either of Biden's last 2 years. But Biden deportations focused on the border, now mainly shut. Trump has targeted those in the country and has removed 230,000 of them, more than Biden in 4 years. @albertsun

Where does the news lean?

7YES15NO1neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

What would make this resolve YES?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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