How many people will Trump deport in 2026?200-300k
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ICE says over 350,000 individuals removed so far in fiscal year 2026
NEW: ICE Director Todd Lyons tells me ICE has now arrested 453,618 criminal aliens w/ convictions or pending criminal charges under Trump 2.0. • • I also asked him for his reaction to illegal aliens being arrested for 75% of the murders in sanctuary Fairfax County, VA this year, & what his message is to VA Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who ended all state cooperation with ICE upon taking office. • • Lyons: “I would just ask the Governor to read the headlines, see what’s going on in [her] state. It’s so frustrating because we see innocent people getting murdered all the time and it’s totally preventable. And if elected officials like the governor want to give me a call and work with us, that’s what we want."
NOAcyn98%match87¢+15%
Reporter: Would you would you support mass deportations of people who are otherwise law-abiding? Trump: We’re focusing on the criminals, the killers… but ultimately, they all broke the law…. Ultimately, yeah, it’s exactly as I said during the campaign.
NOzerohedge99%match90¢+11%
Trump has deported 540,000 people, fewer than in either of Biden's last 2 years. But Biden deportations focused on the border, now mainly shut. Trump has targeted those in the country and has removed 230,000 of them, more than Biden in 4 years. @albertsun
Where does the news lean?
3YES10NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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