How many people will Trump deport in 2026?<200k
Open$10Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Trump admin puts key Biden-era immigration policy on notice: 'Unsustainable cycle'
NORapid Response 4798%match78¢+26%
No, you're just a moron who apparently can't read. Illegal alien drug traffickers, human smugglers, child porn distributors, fraudsters, drunk drivers, etc., aren't classified as "violent." We're getting them (and all the other criminal illegals) the hell out of our country. [Quoting @RepShriThanedar]
> Less than 14% of ICE arrests are violent criminals. Let's stop pretending like this is about public safety or fighting violent crime.
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match75¢+31%
The Trump administration is attempting to eliminate most opportunities for immigrants with deportation orders to appeal cases, the government’s latest step to strip immigrants of due process rights so they can be deported faster.
Where does the news lean?
3YES6NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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