How many people will Trump deport in 2026?800-900k
Open$13Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Deportations: 18 percent fewer in the first half of 2026
BREAKING: New ICE data dump reveals the agency has carried out 356,389 deportations so far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began October 1st. That averages out to roughly 1,260 per day. ICE currently has 65,765 people in ICE detention, 39,576 of whom (60%) have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. • • The data also confirms border czar Tom Homan's recent statements that June saw a record setting number of immigration arrests with 43,138 arrests, which is higher than January and February when the surge in Minnesota was in effect. July is on pace to potentially break the June record.
According to sources familiar with the matter, US President Trump is seeking to tone down the rhetoric surrounding mass deportations and has instructed his senior advisors to adopt new strategies to implement this core campaign promise.
Trump is seeking to lower the profile of his deportation push, telling advisers to focus more on arresting criminals and less on broad “mass deportation,” which he believes voters dislike. — WSJ
NOReuters99%match99¢
Trump Told Inner Circle Some Mass Deportation Policies Went Too Far - WSJ
Trump Told Inner Circle Some Mass Deportation Policies Went Too Far. — WSJ
NONews99%match99¢
*TRUMP SEEKING TO LOWER PROFILE OF MASS DEPORTATION EFFORT: WSJ
Immigration detention cases decline amid Trump admin pullback from hardline tactics
Where does the news lean?
6YES16NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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