How many people will Trump deport in 2026?>1m
Open$7Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Acting ICE chief Todd Lyons steps down a year into Trump deportation campaign
Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin states, • • “We want immigration, we WANT legal immigration… we are a nation of immigrants.” • • He then later adds that the deportations of illegal immigrants that came in during the #Biden administration are fiscally impossible, • • effectively rendering the possible limitation of any form of immigration a dead issue.
Immigration detention cases decline amid Trump admin pullback from hardline tactics
NOAcyn98%match92¢+5%
Reporter: Would you would you support mass deportations of people who are otherwise law-abiding? Trump: We’re focusing on the criminals, the killers… but ultimately, they all broke the law…. Ultimately, yeah, it’s exactly as I said during the campaign.
NOzerohedge99%match81¢+20%
Trump has deported 540,000 people, fewer than in either of Biden's last 2 years. But Biden deportations focused on the border, now mainly shut. Trump has targeted those in the country and has removed 230,000 of them, more than Biden in 4 years. @albertsun
YESThe White House99%match24¢-87%
Millions have been deported under the Trump administration, and the work won't stop here.
Where does the news lean?
3YES8NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
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