Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?Sweden Democrats (SD)
Open$25Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
After the election: Social Democrats in Sweden give up their claim to power
Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats, tasked with forming a government after her victory in the parliamentary elections.
The Swedish government is leaving after the left-wing opposition won the elections: Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson resigned. According to the results of the count, the opposition bloc won 176 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag, while the ruling bloc won 173. The opposition is led by Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats, along with the Left Party, the Center Party, and the Greens. However, this bloc did not declare a course toward restoring relations with Russia. Reuters noted during the campaign that both main coalitions supported aid to Ukraine and the further strengthening of Sweden's defense. More news from IZ RU in MAX
Sweden's left-wing opposition won a narrow majority in the country's general election after the vote count ended Thursday, but faces laborious negotiations to form a government. • • The four parties in the left-wing bloc, led by Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats, hold a three-seat majority in the 349-seat parliament over outgoing prime minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing alliance, which includes the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats.
Swedish anti-immigrant party nears government role for first time
Where does the news lean?
8YES10NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
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