Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? Odds fell to 10% on Sep 13, 2026

OpenMove

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? On , the market’s odds fell from 26¢ to 10.1¢ (-15.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from theguardian.com.

How did the odds move?

At match26¢
+5m12.5¢
+30m3.5¢
+1h10.1¢
1h move-15.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Notheguardian.com96%match
Live: Exit poll: Social Democrats to win in Sweden

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 30% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES30¢
NO70¢

Vol$9K

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Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.