Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
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Market pricing makes Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) the favorite at 81% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Sweden: The leader of the Social Democrats fails again to form a government
Sweden's Social Democratic party leader Magdalena Andersson said Tuesday she had failed to form a government with the three other parties in the left-wing bloc following last month's election. •
Sweden's Social Democratic party leader Magdalena Andersson said Tuesday she had failed to form a government with the three other parties in the left-wing bloc following last month's election. •
Sweden MPs will vote whether to make centre-left leader PM: speaker
Live: Swedish parliament speaker Andreas Norlén says he will put Andersson’s candidacy to lead a single-party government to test her support in parliament. The vote w
Sweden Social Democratic leader says no 'conditions' to form government
Swedish Parliament Speaker Reappoints Andersson to Form New Government Swedish Parliament Speaker Andreas Norlén today, Friday, reappointed Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson to form a new government, nearly three weeks after the parliamentary elections won by the left-wing bloc.
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In Sweden, the leader of the Social Democratic Party is once again tasked with forming a government
Live: Good evening @nijo, your timing is perfect, I've been following the parliamentary elections in Sweden closely, won on September 13th by the left-wing bloc (176 seats, compared to 173 for the right-wing bloc)...
In Sweden, the left-wing bloc is struggling to form a government after the parliamentary elections.
Sweden’s Andersson fails to form government after row with Left Party Social Democrat leaderMagdalena Anderssonsays she has abandoned efforts to form Sweden’s next government after her bloc’s narrow election victory earlier this month. “I can conclude that there is currently no possibility for me to form a government,”Anderssonsaidat a press conference Monday, arguing that the Left Party’s decision to back a Moderate lawmaker as parliamentary speaker had broken the coalition she was trying to assemble. Andersson’scenter-left bloc beat outgoing Prime MinisterUlf Kristersson’sconservative grouping by three seats in the Sept. 13 election,prompting his resignation. She had been expected to negotiate with the bloc’s other parties before returning as prime minister. The dispute centers onAndreas Norlén, the incumbent speaker and a member ofKristersson’sModerate Party. The LeftbackedNorlénrather than the Social Democrats’ candidate,Johanna Haraldsson.Anderssonsaid the largest party in a governing coalition traditionally holds the speaker’s post. Left Party leaderNooshi DadgostarrejectedAndersson’sreading, calling it “something strange” and denying that her party had formed a new bloc with the Moderates. The Left still supportsAnderssonas prime minister — prompting questions over whether Monday’s move is a genuine retreat or a bid to force the party into an outside-support role. The new parliament has only just convened. Theearliest possibleprime ministerial vote is Tuesday, but talks could run for weeks. Under Sweden’s system, a candidatemust avoid 175 votes againstrather than win an outright majority. Tim Ross contributed to this report.
After the election: Social Democrats in Sweden give up their claim to power
Sweden's Social Democratic leader Andersson fails to form government
Live: Left-leaning coalition failed to form government in Sweden, Social Democratic leader Andersson says
Sweden's Social Democratic leader Andersson says failed to form government
Flash: Swedish Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson says failed to form gov't: media
Swedish Social Democratic Leader Andersson: Will Tell Speaker of Parliament She Cannot Form a Government in the Current Situation
Swedish Parliament Speaker Tasks Andersson with Forming New Government Swedish Parliament Speaker Andreas Norlén today tasked Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson with forming a new government in Sweden.
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Swedish Parliament Speaker Tasks Andersson with Forming New Government Swedish Parliament Speaker Andreas Norlén today tasked Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson with forming a new government in Sweden.
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Swedish Parliament Speaker Tasks Andersson with Forming New Government Swedish Parliament Speaker Andreas Norlén today tasked Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson with forming a new government in Sweden.
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Swedish opposition leader tasked with forming govt
Swedish opposition leader tasked with forming govt
Following the election in Sweden: Social Democrat receives mandate to conduct exploratory talks
Social Democrat receives mandate in Sweden to conduct exploratory talks
Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats, tasked with forming a government after her victory in the parliamentary elections.
Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats, tasked with forming a government after her victory in the parliamentary elections.
Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats, tasked with forming a government after her victory in the parliamentary elections.
Sweden: Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the Social Democrats, tasked with forming a government after her victory in the parliamentary elections.
The speaker of the Swedish parliament announced that he had asked Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democratic Party, to consider the possibility of forming a new government. The coalition of the Social Democratic, Left, Green and Center parties narrowly beat the right-wing coalition led by current Prime Minister Olof Kristersson in the parliamentary elections.
The speaker of the Swedish parliament announced that he had asked Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democratic Party, to consider the possibility of forming a new government. The coalition of the Social Democratic, Left, Green and Center parties narrowly beat the right-wing coalition led by current Prime Minister Olof Kristersson in the parliamentary elections.
What is this event about?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.