Iran x Israel/US conflict endsJune 30

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$5.9MResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

Iran's Ministry of Education: Approximately 1,300 schools have been damaged in the latest round of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
NOBelarus State News Agency99%match8¢-100%
Nearly 3,500 people have been killed in Iran as a result of US and Israeli strikes.
NOproactive_x99%match15¢-100%
Prediction markets say US military operations in Iran most likely to run until end of June as ceasefire doubts linger
YESAl Jazeera Mubasher99%match60¢+67%
Channel 13, quoting a senior Israeli officer: Iran is showing no weakness and we must prepare for more weeks of fighting.
YESN12 Reporter99%match66¢+52%
Firing from Iran - currently no reports of casualties or casualties
YESpresstv98%match68¢+47%
US, Israel seek temporary truce in war with Iran to buy time: Report • •
YESnews.sky.com99%match69¢+45%
Iran war, day 20 - what to know
NOgbrew2498%match30¢-100%
US can't de-escalate without losing face and it can't obtain its war goals so it's option is to escalate in the the hopes that this forces Iran to back down. • • Iran, also unwilling to lose face, responds by escalating in turn. • • Some kind of escalation...snare?
NOlrozen98%match23¢-100%
Israel FM says US and Israel will keep fighting without any time limit
NONews98%match25¢-100%
#Breaking | Iranian President: Any base that attacks Iran will be a legitimate target for us We do not intend to enter into conflict with the countries of the region, and we will target the bases that launch attacks against us.
YESIranian Media98%match75¢+33%
Iranian Ambassador to Moscow: Iran has never attempted to assassinate the US President The crime of assassinating Iran's leader could change the rules of conflict. The damage to the Lincoln was a message that we hope the aggressor received. As the aggression against Iran continues, damage to enemy forces and equipment will increasingly increase. @isna94
NONews98%match25¢-100%
Both Adversaries Miscalculated Course of Expanding Conflict -- WSJ
YESNews98%match77¢+30%
Israel says it has identified missiles from Iran
YESIranian Media98%match77¢+30%
Jeffrey Sachs: Israeli and American attacks on Tehran are not targeted, but a complete bombardment / Their actions are not only an unforgivable disaster, but also strategic suicide that could bring the world closer to the end point Jeffrey Sachs, famous American economist and analyst: The recent attacks in Tehran are not targeted bombings, but rather a complete bombardment that has been severely imposed on the people over the past 48 hours. This human catastrophe is brutal and shows no sign of stopping anytime soon. The global consequences of this crisis could be very terrible, and parts of some American societies interpret it as a sign of the end of time and Armageddon. The current situation is unprecedented since World War II, even beyond the crisis of the Iraq War; the motives are clearly evident and no attempt is made to hide them. This violent conflict is being led by the very hardline governments of Israel and the United States, and it is a genocide that is targeting a five-thousand-year-old society. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
YESNews98%match77¢+30%
What we know on the 12th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran
YESIran Semi-Official SNN98%match77¢+30%
FWD from SNN International: Jeffrey Sachs: Israeli and US attacks on Tehran are not targeted, but a complete bombardment / Their actions are not only an unforgivable disaster, but also strategic suicide that could bring the world closer to the end point Jeffrey Sachs, famous American economist and analyst: The recent attacks in Tehran are not targeted bombings, but a complete bombardment that has been severely imposed on the people over the past 48 hours. This human catastrophe is brutal and shows no sign of stopping anytime soon. The global consequences of this crisis could be very terrible, and parts of some American communities interpret it as a sign of the end of time and Armageddon. The current situation is unprecedented since World War II, even beyond the crisis of the Iraq War; the motives are clearly evident and no attempt is made to hide them. This violent conflict is being led by the very hardline governments of Israel and the United States, and it is a genocide targeting a five-thousand-year-old society. SNNTV exclusive translation @snninternational
NOIranian Media98%match23¢-100%
Increase in Iran's environmental pollution since the 12-day war The person responsible for following up on risks and assessing environmental damage in the country, in an interview with ISNA: Given the significant increase in the number of American-Zionist attacks, we are witnessing more environmental pollution than during the imposed 12-day war. The explosion of a bomb creates dust that contains toxic suspended matter such as mercury, which can cause soil and water contamination. Removing pollution requires spending money. isna.ir/xdW572 @isna94
YESIranian Media98%match76¢+32%
Herzog: War with Iran needs a final outcome The head of the Zionist regime: If we measure everything with a speedometer, we won't get anywhere. We need to take a deep breath and reach the end result. isna.ir/xdW5zG @isna94
YESIran Semi-Official Mehr99%match77¢+30%
Iran has never started a war, but it ends with Iran, and Iran has never lost a war. Iran Bidar-Sadeghieh @Mehrnews
YESWSJ Reporter98%match76¢+32%
Israel says this is about regime change. • • US says this is about military objectives. • • They are conducting the war together. • • Someone’s objectives likely aren’t going to be met.
YESIran State News Agency98%match76¢+32%
Irvani: The international community must act now to stop the bloody war against the Iranian people Amir Saeed Iravani, Iran's ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations, criticized the silence of the UN Security Council and said: "The international community must act now to stop this bloody war against the Iranian people. We will take all necessary measures to defend our people, land, and independence." He added: "Today is the eleventh consecutive day of this brutal war against the people of Iran; a war that began on February 28, 2026." During this time, the United States and the Israeli regime have continued their massive attacks against Iran and its people around the clock, without interruption. They deliberately and indiscriminately target civilians and civilian infrastructure throughout my country, have no respect for international law, and show no restraint in committing these crimes. Popular residential areas and vital civilian infrastructure have been deliberately targeted. So far, these horrific crimes have resulted in the martyrdom of more than 1,300 civilians. Also, 9,669 civilian locations have been destroyed, including: 7,943 residential units, 1,617 commercial and service centers, 32 medical and pharmaceutical centers, 65 schools and educational institutions, 13 Red Crescent Society buildings, and several energy supply facilities. It is deeply regrettable that the Security Council remains silent. Despite its primary responsibility under the UN Charter to maintain international peace and security, the Council has turned a blind eye to these gross violations. News link @IRNA_1313
YESNews98%match76¢+32%
Israel sharply boosting defence spending to finance Iran war
YESNews98%match76¢+32%
US asks Israel to stop striking energy sites in Iran - report
YESNews98%match76¢+32%
US urges Israel to stop attacks on Iran energy sites, Axios reports
NONews98%match24¢-100%
Reports suggest the US ended the war without Israel's consent... What are the details?
YESNews98%match76¢+32%
Iran says targeted military, intelligence sites in Israel
NOwarmonitor398%match24¢-100%
Israel is not seeking an endless war with Iran and will coordinate ‌with the United States on when to end the fighting-Israeli foreign minister.
YESNews98%match76¢+32%
Iran launches new missile salvo at Israel, US targets: Guards

Where does the news lean?

53YES41NO11neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

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