Iran x Israel/US conflict endsDecember 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$4.0Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was reached without Israeli consultation, according to Kann News • • An Israeli source says: "In the end, the US is above us – and that is part of the rules"
US, Iran and mediators are pushing for a 45-day ceasefire, says newspaper.
The US-Israeli war on Iran: An analysis of the conditions for declaring victory and potential concessions in the confrontation
Polymarket odds on US forces entering Iran: • • By December 31: 69% • By April 30: 57% • • Only counts deliberate entry by US military personnel into Iranian territory. Pilots shot down or accidental crossings don't qualify.
Trump: When the US wants to end the conflict with Iran, Israel will do so in tandem.
US, Israel seek temporary truce in war with Iran to buy time: Report • •
US can't de-escalate without losing face and it can't obtain its war goals so it's option is to escalate in the the hopes that this forces Iran to back down. • • Iran, also unwilling to lose face, responds by escalating in turn. • • Some kind of escalation...snare?
Where does the news lean?
17YES7NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
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