Iran x Israel/US conflict ends

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This hub tracks 9 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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May 15100%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Iranian officials say there is no internal division in Iran regarding confrontation with the US and Israel.
Iranian officials say there is no internal division in Iran regarding confrontation with the US and Israel.
Iran's Ministry of Education: Approximately 1,300 schools have been damaged in the latest round of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
Iran's Ministry of Education: Approximately 1,300 schools have been damaged in the latest round of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
June 30marketnews_feed99%match92¢+9%
THERE IS A 68% CHANCE OF A PERMANENT IRAN X US PEACE DEAL BY JUNE 30, PER POLYMARKET: ...
April 30dolfiniran98%match15¢-100%
00:54/ April 30 Operational Assessment: Combat force formations, increasing equipment transfers, radio silence, special maneuvers, extensive intelligence gathering operations, and operational coordination with the Israeli regime suggest that the United States may intend to initiate military conflict before the end of the two-week ceasefire. Arab countries are urging the United States to start a war. Iran has taken full advantage of the ceasefire to develop 'game-changing' operational plans and is ready to confront. Some international powers will be more directly involved in this battle.
Nearly 3,500 people have been killed in Iran as a result of US and Israeli strikes.
Nearly 3,500 people have been killed in Iran as a result of US and Israeli strikes.
Nearly 3,500 people have been killed in Iran as a result of US and Israeli strikes.
December 31Channel 12 (N12)99%match98¢+2%
Assaf Rosenzweig Iran puts death toll in war with Israel and US at 3,468
April 30Channel 12 (N12)99%match19¢-100%
Assaf Rosenzweig Iran puts death toll in war with Israel and US at 3,468
June 30Channel 12 (N12)99%match92¢+9%
Assaf Rosenzweig Iran puts death toll in war with Israel and US at 3,468
May 15Channel 12 (N12)99%match13¢-100%
Assaf Rosenzweig Iran puts death toll in war with Israel and US at 3,468
April 7Channel 12 (N12)99%match20¢-100%
Assaf Rosenzweig Iran puts death toll in war with Israel and US at 3,468
May 15Iran Government99%match87¢+15%
The defense of Iran is not over, it has just changed its face. If during the 40 days of the Ramadan War, we all stood united and coherent in the military, political, and media arenas and defended #Iran, Iran's identity, and Iran's dignity, we must remain just as vigilant and united today in the ceasefire atmosphere. A #government_based_on_the_people's_work, capable armed forces defending the homeland, and a loyal people have been the three pillars of Iran's stability in difficult times and continue to be so today. The sounds of war may seem less audible, but the defense still continues; this time in the arena of hope, cohesion, narrative, and maintaining national authority and cohesion. Together, we defend our beloved Iran. We all stand together for dear Iran.
April 30osint61399%match15¢-100%
The two week ceasefire in Iran officially ends April 22.
April 7osint61399%match16¢-100%
The two week ceasefire in Iran officially ends April 22.
June 30iranintl_en98%match94¢+6%
One hundred days after what activists call the deadliest crackdown in modern Iranian history, many say they are still waiting for the freedom protesters demanded. Despite US and Israeli strikes weakening parts of the system, it remains in place as talks shift to possible deals.
April 30Iran State News Agency98%match13¢-100%
50 days after the internet outage What damage will the international internet shutdown cause following the US-Israeli war against Iran? Which groups are harmed in these circumstances and what is the extent of this harm? This report is a review of the answers to these questions and examples of the harms and losses that are imposed on users in the absence of international internet. Follow IRNA news on Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus | ETA | Jahan @IRNA_1313
December 31nbcnews.com99%match98¢+2%
U.S. and Israel 'have no option' but to submit to Iran, army commander says
April 30nbcnews.com99%match7¢-100%
U.S. and Israel 'have no option' but to submit to Iran, army commander says
April 7nbcnews.com99%match9¢-100%
U.S. and Israel 'have no option' but to submit to Iran, army commander says
April 30Russian Media98%match90¢+11%
June Brent crude futures fell 10.5% to $88.96 on news of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the London-based ICE Futures exchange. The price of futures for American WTI oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by 9% and reached $82.9 per barrel. On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire in Lebanon. On the same day, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The naval blockade of Iran will remain in place until the deal is 100% completed, US President Donald Trump said. He added that the process should proceed very quickly, as most of the points have already been agreed upon. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
April 7Russian Media98%match12¢-100%
June Brent crude futures fell 10.5% to $88.96 on news of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the London-based ICE Futures exchange. The price of futures for American WTI oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell by 9% and reached $82.9 per barrel. On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire in Lebanon. On the same day, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The naval blockade of Iran will remain in place until the deal is 100% completed, US President Donald Trump said. He added that the process should proceed very quickly, as most of the points have already been agreed upon. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
June 30staunovo98%match95¢+5%
Countries to discuss Hormuz mission for when conflict ends
April 7faststocknewss99%match11¢-100%
POLYMARKET ODDS OF A US X IRAN CEASEFIRE BY APRIL 21 JUST HIT RECORD HIGHS AT 89%
The second round of talks between Iran and the United States is scheduled for April 16, according to media reports.
April 30aljadeednews99%match43¢-100%
Iran may retaliate... Israel is preparing! (Maariv) For details:
Turkish Foreign Minister: US-Iran ceasefire may need to be extended; Israel's "destructive role" must be guarded against.
Turkish Foreign Minister: US-Iran ceasefire may need to be extended; Israel's "destructive role" must be guarded against.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

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