Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedSeptember 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$831Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
35 ships pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait per day A source in the Yemeni Ministry of Transport:
From September 10 to 18, 316 ships have passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The average number of ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait during this period was about 35 ships per day. isna.ir/xdX6sZ
@isna94
YESNews97%match0¢
(Al Masirah) A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al Masirah: The average number of ships crossing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait is approximately 5 per day during the period from September 10 to 18.
Urgent A source in the Ministry of Transport told Al-Masirah: 73 ships crossed Bab al-Mandab in the past two days - Bab al-Mandab saw the passage of 36 ships on September 10 and 37 ships on September 11 - The Yemeni blockade on Saudi shipping has not affected the smooth flow of international shipping through Bab al-Mandab - The passage of 73 ships through Bab al-Mandab in 48 hours is equivalent to 98.6% of the average passage before the Yemeni blockade - The actual figures for ship traffic refute claims that international shipping in Bab al-Mandab is at risk
BREAKING: Houthi forces have taken Perim Island. The Bab el-Mandeb is 20 km wide at that point. • • Mokha and the Hanish Islands fell on September 10. Perim fell this morning. Yemen's Red Sea coastline is now Houthi-held end to end, and the strait's narrowest point is under their control. • • Windward all-source operational intelligence, as of 1300 UTC September 11: • • Bab el-Mandeb transits unchanged so far. 17 inbound September 10, 13 by midday today. • • Outbound may be softening: 24 to 9 over the same windows (partial day, AIS-based). • • 16 tankers and 33 cargo vessels transmitting in the strait across 19 flags. • • Crude tankers in the Red Sea up 38% since the offensive began September 3 (78 vs. an expected 57). • • From Mokha, Dhubab and Perim, the lane is within artillery range. Enforcing a selective blockade just got cheaper. • • Windward's MIOC has issued a Special Report on the situation. • Read now:
US Central Command: As of September 7, 94 commercial vessels had been redirected, 3 had been disabled, and 2 had been boarded to ensure full compliance with the blockade.
Where does the news lean?
8YES9NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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