Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closedAugust 31
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.6Mas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
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41 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Hormuz crossings fall by half as Bab el-Mandeb traffic holds steady • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply on 31 August, with five confirmed crossings, down 50% from 10 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf, while one exited. The crossings followed a mix of Iranian, Omani and negotiated routes and included two shadow-fleet vessels and one sanctioned vessel. • This figure remains preliminary, as “dark” crossings may be retrospectively identified and added as new confirmation data becomes available. • • By contrast, activity through Bab el-Mandeb remained broadly stable, with 35 confirmed crossings, up 2.9% day-on-day. Nineteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 16 exited, with no dark transits or new IMO-confirmed attacks recorded.
Hormuz crossings fall by half as Bab el-Mandeb traffic holds steady • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply on 31 August, with five confirmed crossings, down 50% from 10 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf, while one exited. The crossings followed a mix of Iranian, Omani and negotiated routes and included two shadow-fleet vessels and one sanctioned vessel. • This figure remains preliminary, as “dark” crossings may be retrospectively identified and added as new confirmation data becomes available. • • By contrast, activity through Bab el-Mandeb remained broadly stable, with 35 confirmed crossings, up 2.9% day-on-day. Nineteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 16 exited, with no dark transits or new IMO-confirmed attacks recorded.
Hormuz crossings fall by half as Bab el-Mandeb traffic holds steady • • Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply on 31 August, with five confirmed crossings, down 50% from 10 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Four vessels entered the Middle East Gulf, while one exited. The crossings followed a mix of Iranian, Omani and negotiated routes and included two shadow-fleet vessels and one sanctioned vessel. • • By contrast, activity through Bab el-Mandeb remained broadly stable, with 35 confirmed crossings, up 2.9% day-on-day. Nineteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 16 exited, with no dark transits or new IMO-confirmed attacks recorded.
Strait traffic trends lower • • #MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic declining across both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 25 August. The Strait of Hormuz recorded five confirmed crossings, down 28.6% day on day from seven. Two vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and three exited, with all five using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme. • • Bab el-Mandeb recorded 36 confirmed crossings, down 7.7% from 39. Fifteen vessels entered the Red Sea and 21 exited. Two dark transits were also identified, adding to continued scrutiny of #vessel movements through the region’s key maritime chokepoints.
Strait crossings remain subdued • • Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb declined on 25 August, while the IMO verified no additional attacks. Five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, down 28.6% day on day from seven. All five used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with two entering the Middle East Gulf and three exiting. Four were classified as shadow vessels and one as sanctioned. • • Bab el-Mandeb recorded 36 confirmed crossings, down 7.7% from 39. Of these, 15 entered the Red Sea and 21 exited. The total included seven #sanctioned vessels, five shadow vessels and 24 in all other categories, alongside two dark transits. • • Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:
Al-Hadath correspondent Ahmed Bajato: Shipping traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait is declining... only 3 ships are crossing the waterway daily.
Urgent Lloyd's List: - Some ship owners and operators are avoiding calling at Saudi ports on the Red Sea - Insurance coverage remains available for vessels not linked to Saudi Arabia - Operations at Saudi ports such as Yanbu are operating covertly, disabling AID before leaving the area via the Suez Canal - Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb shows signs of stabilizing despite the naval blockade on Saudi shipping - 223 transits of vessels with AID operational were recorded in Bab el-Mandeb between August 10 and 16
Lloyd's List: Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb shows signs of stabilization despite the naval blockade on Saudi shipping 223 transits recorded for vessels with AID in operation in Bab el-Mandeb between 10 and 16 August
Middle East transits diverge • • #MarineTraffic data show a marked divergence in shipping activity across two key Middle East chokepoints on 18 August. Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings declined 17% from the previous day to 10, with six vessels exiting the MEG and four entering. • • At Bab el-Mandeb, confirmed crossings increased 53% to 46, with 30 vessels entering the Red Sea and 16 exiting. No dark transits were recorded at Bab el-Mandeb. There was also a new IMO-confirmed attack on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY in the Strait of Hormuz on 17 August, resulting in the death of one seafarer.
Kepler: Confirmed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 17% to 10 ships on August 17; five ships passed through the “unilateral Iranian plan.” At the same time, traffic through Bab al-Mandeb increased by 53% to 46 ships.
Live: Hormuz transits down as Bab al-Mandeb sees increase, says data firm
MarineTraffic: • • Maritime traffic in recent days has split into two routes at two key critical points. • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by 19.5%, falling to 95 crossings from 118 previously. Daily crossings also dropped from a peak of 19 on August 11 to just three on August 16. • • Of the total crossings, 51 used the Iranian route, while 44 were on unidentified routes. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased by 6.7%, reaching 254 crossings.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Maritime traffic rises despite risk • • Vessel movements increased across Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 11 August, but the underlying risk picture remains elevated. Hormuz recorded 14 crossings, up 16.7% day on day, including 12 vessels entering the Middle East Gulf. Eleven of the 14 used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with no TSS crossings recorded. Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose 14.3% to 40 crossings, including 23 Red Sea entries. The dataset also recorded four dark transits, four sanctioned crossings and seven shadow fleet crossings, highlighting the value of continued #MarineTraffic visibility as vessel behaviour evolves.
Chokepoint traffic rises, risks persist • • Maritime traffic increased through both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 11 August, but higher volumes have not translated into normalisation. Hormuz crossings rose to 14, with 11 using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and none using the traditional TSS route. Bab el-Mandeb recorded 40 crossings, including dark, sanctioned and shadow fleet movements. A new confirmed vessel attack also lifted the cumulative total to 65. For shipping markets, the message remains mixed: trade is moving, but routing constraints, security incidents and diplomatic tensions continue to make both corridors active but fragile. • • Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:
Weekend vessel traffic diverges • • Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz weakened markedly over the weekend. Confirmed crossings fell from 15 on Friday to 11 on Saturday and six on Sunday, with 32 vessels crossing between 7 and 9 August. Routing remained concentrated, including 17 movements through the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 10 classified as Route Undetermined. • • Bab el-Mandeb remained significantly busier, with 116 confirmed crossings over the same period. Traffic held relatively steady at 43, 37 and 36 daily crossings, although 12 dark transits continued to highlight AIS visibility concerns. Saturday also recorded elevated risk activity, including 10 sanctioned crossings and eight dark transits.
Kepler: Shipping traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is witnessing a significant increase, with the number of transiting vessels rising to 26.
Kepler announced that traffic through Bab al-Mandab increased by 18 percent on Friday, August 6, to 26 confirmed crossings, three of which were made without sending an identification signal.
Hormuz traffic remains subdued • • The Strait of Hormuz remained subdued on 7 August, with 8 confirmed crossings, down 33% day-on-day, while most vessels used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme. Bab el-Mandeb activity moved in the opposite direction, rising 18% to 26 confirmed crossings, including three dark transits. No additional vessel attacks were confirmed by the IMO. Kpler continues to monitor transit patterns, vessel risk profiles and routing behaviour across both strategic chokepoints. • • Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:
Reuters, citing shipping data: A sharp decline in shipping traffic; only two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday compared to eight the previous day, and only one vessel transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait compared to 20 the previous day, following attacks on Saudi ships.
Breaking News Reuters: Shipping slows in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb after attack on Saudi tanker - Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday, compared to 20 the previous day
Breaking News Reuters: Shipping in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb declines after attack on Saudi tanker - Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait yesterday, Wednesday, compared to 20 the previous day
Reuters: Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait yesterday, Wednesday, compared to 20 ships the previous day. #AlMayadeen
Reuters: Only one cargo ship crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Wednesday, compared to 20 the previous day.
Traffic data reveals fragile flows • • #MarineTraffic data highlights how headline volumes can obscure underlying maritime risk. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell from 10 to eight on 4 August, with seven vessels exiting the Middle East Gulf and only one entering. Five of the eight movements used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while no Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme crossings were recorded. Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose from 25 to 34, including 18 vessels entering the Red Sea and 16 exiting. Yet four dark transits, two sanctioned crossings and six shadow fleet movements indicate that visibility, routing concentration and compliance exposure remain central concerns.
Kepler, stating that maritime risks remain high, reported that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz had decreased to eight on August 4, while traffic through Bab al-Mandab had increased to 34.
Chokepoint traffic remains uneven • • #MarineTraffic data shows 39 combined crossings through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 2 August, as traffic patterns across the two corridors continued to diverge. • • Hormuz recorded nine transits, compared with 23 on 31 July and 11 on 1 August. Five vessels exited the Middle East Gulf and four entered. Seven used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while two routes were undetermined and none used the Hormuz traffic separation scheme. The daily total included two sanctioned and two shadow fleet vessels. • • Bab el-Mandeb recorded 30 crossings, down from 41 on 31 July and 37 on 1 August. Twenty vessels exited the Red Sea and 10 entered. One dark transit, two sanctioned crossings and three shadow fleet crossings were recorded.
Waterway updates: • -Hormuz crossings remained limited on 2 August, with 9 confirmed transits. The latest daily set included 2 sanctioned vessels, 2 shadow fleet vessels, and 5 All Rest vessels. • -Bab el-Mandeb crossings eased to 30 on 2 August, down from 37 on 1 August and 41 on 31 July. Directionally, the latest flow was weighted toward vessels exiting the Red Sea, with 20 exits and 10 entries. #OOTT @Kpler
CENTCOM: As of Friday, August 29, the US military has diverted 30 commercial vessels, disabled two vessels, and boarded two vessels to ensure full implementation of the blockade.
Red Sea update: Bab el-Mandeb transits have halved rather than stopped, Yanbu crude is rerouting through Egypt to buyers from the Baltic to the US Gulf, and the empty tankers willing to sail back in will decide how long the reshuffle holds. @Kpler #OOTT
Al-Hadath correspondent Ahmed Bajato: The number of ships transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait has increased, and Djibouti authorities expect the Houthi threats to international navigation to end.
Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has plummeted to its lowest levels following Houthi attacks. Ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has seen a sharp decline in recent months. On Sunday, only 11 cargo ships transited the strait. Last week, after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports, the number of ships dropped to 30 per day. Following the Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers, most companies have rerouted their vessels or postponed their Red Sea transits.
Yemeni blockade of Bab al-Mandab The latest maritime traffic tracking data published by Reuters shows that ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait has reached its lowest level in recent months, with only 11 cargo ships passing through the waterway on Sunday. Ship traffic in Bab al-Mandab reached about 30 ships last week after Yemen announced a naval blockade of Saudi ports; a trend that has now reached its lowest level in recent months with only 11 ships per day recorded. According to Reuters, concerns among shipping industry activists following the Yemeni attack on two Saudi oil tankers have caused most shipping companies to change their routes or postpone crossing the Red Sea. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Yemen targets 3 Saudi oil tankers Al-Mayadeen: Yemeni armed forces have targeted 3 Saudi oil tankers in the past 48 hours. The number of Saudi ships that have been returned since last Monday has reached 16 ships. The source also reported that no Saudi oil tanker has passed through Bab al-Mandab since the beginning of the blockade on Yemen.
@Farsna]
Houthi provocations intensify in the Red Sea… Number of vessels passing through Bab el-Mandeb plummets to 11
Reuters reported that only 11 cargo ships passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Sunday, the lowest number in months, citing data from Kepler. The decline came after Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on the Red Sea coast.
AFP: At least nine ships have been turned away from passing through Bab al-Mandab after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade The ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces.
AFP: At least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after Saudi Arabia announced a blockade AFP reported, citing shipping sources, that at least 9 ships have withdrawn from passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait after the Yemeni armed forces announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. According to the report, among the ships that have changed their route are tankers that were carrying oil from the Saudi port of Yanbu. AFP also reported, citing the International Chamber of Shipping, that the ships have received warnings from Yemen that they will be targeted if they do not comply with the decision of the Yemeni armed forces.
@TasnimNews
Construction: Hormuz is almost at a standstill and Bab al-Mandab is economically closed… and eight tankers have changed course
Live: Six ships turned away from Bab el Mandeb Strait due to blockade - state media
Oil at $91 as Bab al-Mandab closed After the return of two Pakistani ships carrying Saudi oil, the price of oil reached above $91 per barrel. Yesterday, the Yemenis announced that they would close Bab al-Mandab, and today, ship monitoring shows that two Pakistani ships that wanted to transport Saudi oil through Bab al-Mandab have changed their route. @Farana [in reply to: Arab sources: 2 tankers carrying Saudi oil have changed their route in the Red Sea and returned to the Suez Canal following the naval blockade imposed by Yemen. @Farsna]
Where does the news lean?
70YES44NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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